Image Department Meteorology
Meteorology_Home Weather_Server News/Seminars
People
Research
Academics Application Contact_Us

Hawaiian_Weather
US_Mainland_Weather
Tropical_Weather
Satellite_Imagery
Radar_Imagery
Marine
Numerical_Models
LAPS
Forecasts
Observations
Archive
Links Disclaimer
Space
SOEST_Home
University_of_Hawaii_Home

 846 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 311500
 TCDEP1
 HURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006
 800 AM PDT THU AUG 31 2006
  
 FIRST LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT JOHN HAS AN OBSCURED EYE
 AND A DISTINCT EYEWALL...ABOUT 20 N MI WIDE.  THE CUYUTLAN MEXICO
 RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW A WELL-DEFINED EYE AS WELL AS RAIN BANDS
 ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
 FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 115 KT AND 102 KT RESPECTIVELY...AND THE
 INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 110 KT.  JOHN REMAINS A DANGEROUS
 CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. 
 A UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED 
 TO INVESTIGATE JOHN AT 1800 UTC...AND...IF NECESSARY...ADJUSTMENTS
 TO THE INTENSITY WILL BE MADE IN THE NEXT ADVISORY.   
 
 MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE MAINTAINS JOHN AS A CATEGORY THREE TO
 BORDERLINE CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE THROUGH 36 TO 48 HOURS.  THE
 DIFFICULTY IN FORECASTING THE INTENSITY IS PRIMARILY DUE TO THE
 INTERACTION OF THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE HURRICANE WITH LAND.  SOME
 ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED IN THE FORECAST SINCE THE
 SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT AND WATERS WILL REMAIN
 AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS.  IN 72 HOURS...JOHN IS FORECAST TO MOVE
 OVER WATERS BELOW 25 DEGREES CELSIUS AND STEADY WEAKENING TO A
 TROPICAL STORM SHOULD OCCUR BY DAY 5.  
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/12.  JOHN HAS BEEN MOVING BETWEEN A WEST-
 NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS. THIS GENERAL
 MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE HURRICANE APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN
 TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA.  THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
 AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS WITH JOHN CONTINUING TO MOVE ALONG
 THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE.  THE
 MODELS DIVERGE IN FORECASTING THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE TO THE
 NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AND EITHER TAKE JOHN ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA
 OR REMAIN TO THE SOUTH.  THE GFS AND UKMET BOTH MAINTAIN ENOUGH
 RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO TO
 KEEP JOHN JUST TO THE SOUTH OF CABO SAN LUCAS.  HOWEVER...BOTH THE
 GFDL AND NOGAPS MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A LANDFALL ON THE
 SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE
 CONSENSUS OF THE TRACK MODELS.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      31/1500Z 19.5N 106.5W   110 KT
  12HR VT     01/0000Z 20.7N 107.6W   115 KT
  24HR VT     01/1200Z 22.0N 108.8W   115 KT
  36HR VT     02/0000Z 22.8N 110.1W   110 KT
  48HR VT     02/1200Z 23.3N 111.4W   100 KT
  72HR VT     03/1200Z 24.0N 114.0W    85 KT
  96HR VT     04/1200Z 24.0N 118.0W    65 KT
 120HR VT     05/1200Z 24.0N 122.0W    45 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH
  
 
Return to the Tropical Systems Page for JOHN

Back to main Tropical Weather page




This page is maintained voluntarily by the MKWC and the UHMET faculty, staff, and students.
It was last modified on: Thu, Jul 23 2020 - 2003 UTC
Send comments to: Ryan Lyman