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 246 
 FOPZ11 KNHC 310246
 PWSEP1
 HURRICANE JOHN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  11                  
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006               
 0300 UTC THU AUG 31 2006                                            
                                                                     
 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1
 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110  
 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/HR.                                          
                                                                     
 CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
    ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
    ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
    ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
 FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                     
 PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
     IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
         AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
    (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
         00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                     
 PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
 X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
 LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
    PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                     
 Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
    PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
    HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                     
                                                                     
   - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                     
                FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
   TIME       00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
 PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
              12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
                                                                     
 FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                     
 P ABREOJOS     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)  13(16)   8(24)   1(25)
 P ABREOJOS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)
  
 CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X  10(10)  37(47)  18(65)  12(77)   1(78)   1(79)
 CABO SAN LUCAS 50  X   1( 1)  19(20)  16(36)   9(45)   2(47)   X(47)
 CABO SAN LUCAS 64  X   X( X)   9( 9)  10(19)   7(26)   X(26)   X(26)
  
 SAN JOSE CABO  34  X  11(11)  39(50)  18(68)  11(79)   1(80)   X(80)
 SAN JOSE CABO  50  X   1( 1)  22(23)  17(40)  10(50)   1(51)   X(51)
 SAN JOSE CABO  64  X   X( X)  12(12)  10(22)   8(30)   1(31)   X(31)
  
 LA PAZ         34  X   4( 4)  22(26)  23(49)  19(68)   3(71)   1(72)
 LA PAZ         50  X   X( X)   6( 6)  12(18)  15(33)   3(36)   X(36)
 LA PAZ         64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   7(15)   1(16)   X(16)
  
 LORETO         34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)  18(28)   5(33)   X(33)
 LORETO         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)
 LORETO         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
  
 HERMOSILLO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
  
 BAHIA KINO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)
  
 GUAYMAS        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   2(11)   X(11)
  
 HUATABAMPO     34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)  10(18)   2(20)   X(20)
 HUATABAMPO     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
  
 LOS MOCHIS     34  X   1( 1)   9(10)  11(21)  10(31)   2(33)   X(33)
 LOS MOCHIS     50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   4( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
 LOS MOCHIS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
  
 CULICAN        34  X   4( 4)  20(24)  19(43)  12(55)   2(57)   X(57)
 CULICAN        50  X   X( X)   5( 5)   9(14)   7(21)   1(22)   X(22)
 CULICAN        64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   4(10)   X(10)   X(10)
  
 MAZATLAN       34  2  30(32)  17(49)   4(53)   3(56)   X(56)   X(56)
 MAZATLAN       50  X   5( 5)  10(15)   2(17)   2(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 MAZATLAN       64  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
  
 SAN BLAS       34 16  39(55)   4(59)   2(61)   2(63)   X(63)   X(63)
 SAN BLAS       50  1  14(15)   2(17)   1(18)   1(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 SAN BLAS       64  X   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
  
 P VALLARTA     34 63  17(80)   1(81)   1(82)   1(83)   X(83)   X(83)
 P VALLARTA     50 12  20(32)   1(33)   X(33)   1(34)   X(34)   X(34)
 P VALLARTA     64  4   9(13)   X(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
  
 BARRA NAVIDAD  34 98   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)
 BARRA NAVIDAD  50 75   1(76)   X(76)   X(76)   1(77)   X(77)   X(77)
 BARRA NAVIDAD  64 36   1(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)
  
 MANZANILLO     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 MANZANILLO     50 51   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)
 MANZANILLO     64 11   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
  
 L CARDENAS     34  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
  
 ISLA SOCORRO   34  1   2( 3)   3( 6)   3( 9)   4(13)   1(14)   X(14)
  
 ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)
  
 ISLAS MARIAS   34 22  64(86)   4(90)   1(91)   1(92)   X(92)   X(92)
 ISLAS MARIAS   50  2  56(58)   7(65)   1(66)   1(67)   X(67)   X(67)
 ISLAS MARIAS   64  X  34(34)   7(41)   1(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)
  
                                                                     
   - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                     
                FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
   TIME       00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
 PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
              12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
                                                                     
 FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
  HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                     
  12 193N 1059W 34 97   2(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
  12 193N 1059W 50 85   7(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)
  12 193N 1059W 64 70  11(81)   X(81)   X(81)   X(81)   X(81)   X(81)
  
  24 213N 1072W 34 16  71(87)   6(93)   1(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)
  24 213N 1072W 50  2  62(64)  10(74)   1(75)   1(76)   X(76)   X(76)
  24 213N 1072W 64  X  44(44)  11(55)   1(56)   1(57)   X(57)   X(57)
  
  36 224N 1086W 34  2  37(39)  37(76)   7(83)   4(87)   X(87)   X(87)
  36 224N 1086W 50  X  11(11)  37(48)   8(56)   5(61)   X(61)   X(61)
  36 224N 1086W 64  X   5( 5)  27(32)   7(39)   4(43)   X(43)   X(43)
  
  48 230N 1098W 34  X  11(11)  38(49)  17(66)  12(78)   1(79)   1(80)
  48 230N 1098W 50  X   1( 1)  22(23)  15(38)  11(49)   1(50)   X(50)
  48 230N 1098W 64  X   X( X)  11(11)  10(21)   7(28)   1(29)   X(29)
  
  
  72 238N 1123W 34  X   X( X)   8( 8)  15(23)  27(50)   9(59)   X(59)
  72 238N 1123W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  17(23)   5(28)   X(28)
  72 238N 1123W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)   3(15)   X(15)
  
  
  96 240N 1165W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)  19(27)   2(29)
  96 240N 1165W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   2( 9)
  96 240N 1165W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
  
  
 120 240N 1210W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)
 120 240N 1210W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 120 240N 1210W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
  
                - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
 FCST MAX WIND    115    115     115     110     100      75      55
 FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
  
                                                                     
 $$                                                                  
 FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN                                                    
                                                                     
                                                                     
 
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