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 188 
 FOPZ11 KNHC 302039
 PWSEP1
 HURRICANE JOHN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  10                  
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006               
 2100 UTC WED AUG 30 2006                                            
                                                                     
 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4
 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115  
 KTS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR.                                          
                                                                     
 CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
    ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
    ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
    ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
 FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                     
 PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
     IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
         AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
    (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
         18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                     
 PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
 X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
 LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
    PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                     
 Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
    PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
    HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                     
                                                                     
   - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                     
                FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
   TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
 PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
              06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
                                                                     
 FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                     
 P ABREOJOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  14(16)  11(27)   1(28)
 P ABREOJOS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)
 P ABREOJOS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
  
 CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   3( 3)  25(28)  30(58)  18(76)   1(77)   1(78)
 CABO SAN LUCAS 50  X   X( X)   9( 9)  23(32)  14(46)   1(47)   1(48)
 CABO SAN LUCAS 64  X   X( X)   3( 3)  15(18)  10(28)   1(29)   X(29)
  
 SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   3( 3)  27(30)  29(59)  19(78)   1(79)   1(80)
 SAN JOSE CABO  50  X   X( X)  10(10)  24(34)  14(48)   1(49)   1(50)
 SAN JOSE CABO  64  X   X( X)   4( 4)  15(19)  10(29)   1(30)   X(30)
  
 LA PAZ         34  X   1( 1)  11(12)  28(40)  26(66)   4(70)   X(70)
 LA PAZ         50  X   X( X)   2( 2)  13(15)  21(36)   1(37)   1(38)
 LA PAZ         64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)  11(18)   1(19)   1(20)
  
 LORETO         34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)  21(29)   7(36)   X(36)
 LORETO         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)
 LORETO         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
  
 HERMOSILLO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
  
 BAHIA KINO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)
  
 GUAYMAS        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   3(12)   X(12)
  
 HUATABAMPO     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   9(16)   3(19)   1(20)
 HUATABAMPO     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
  
 LOS MOCHIS     34  X   X( X)   4( 4)  12(16)  14(30)   1(31)   X(31)
 LOS MOCHIS     50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   5( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 LOS MOCHIS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
  
 CULICAN        34  X   1( 1)  12(13)  22(35)  16(51)   2(53)   1(54)
 CULICAN        50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   9(20)   1(21)   X(21)
 CULICAN        64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   5(10)   X(10)   X(10)
  
 MAZATLAN       34  1  11(12)  26(38)   8(46)   5(51)   X(51)   X(51)
 MAZATLAN       50  X   1( 1)   9(10)   5(15)   2(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 MAZATLAN       64  X   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
  
 SAN BLAS       34  4  44(48)  10(58)   2(60)   2(62)   X(62)   X(62)
 SAN BLAS       50  X  12(12)   7(19)   2(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 SAN BLAS       64  X   4( 4)   3( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
  
 P VALLARTA     34 26  53(79)   3(82)   1(83)   1(84)   X(84)   X(84)
 P VALLARTA     50  2  39(41)   4(45)   1(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)
 P VALLARTA     64  X  19(19)   3(22)   1(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)
  
 BARRA NAVIDAD  34 87   9(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)
 BARRA NAVIDAD  50 56  25(81)   X(81)   X(81)   X(81)   X(81)   X(81)
 BARRA NAVIDAD  64 29  33(62)   1(63)   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)
  
 MANZANILLO     34 90   4(94)   1(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)
 MANZANILLO     50 61  13(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)
 MANZANILLO     64 30  14(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)
  
 L CARDENAS     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 L CARDENAS     50 39   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)
  
 ZIHUATANEJO    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
  
 ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   3( 8)   4(12)   1(13)   1(14)
  
 ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)
  
 ISLAS MARIAS   34  3  63(66)  17(83)   3(86)   1(87)   X(87)   X(87)
 ISLAS MARIAS   50  X  33(33)  22(55)   3(58)   1(59)   X(59)   X(59)
 ISLAS MARIAS   64  X  14(14)  22(36)   3(39)   1(40)   X(40)   X(40)
  
                                                                     
   - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                     
                FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
   TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
 PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
              06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
                                                                     
 FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
  HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                     
  12 186N 1047W 34 97   2(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
  12 186N 1047W 50 84   7(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)
  12 186N 1047W 64 68  11(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)
  
  24 204N 1065W 34 12  73(85)   7(92)   X(92)   1(93)   X(93)   X(93)
  24 204N 1065W 50  1  61(62)  10(72)   2(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)
  24 204N 1065W 64  X  43(43)  12(55)   X(55)   1(56)   X(56)   X(56)
  
  36 218N 1079W 34  2  31(33)  42(75)  10(85)   3(88)   X(88)   X(88)
  36 218N 1079W 50  X   9( 9)  40(49)  12(61)   4(65)   X(65)   X(65)
  36 218N 1079W 64  X   3( 3)  29(32)  10(42)   3(45)   X(45)   X(45)
  
  48 228N 1095W 34  X   5( 5)  31(36)  28(64)  14(78)   2(80)   X(80)
  48 228N 1095W 50  X   X( X)  14(14)  24(38)  12(50)   1(51)   X(51)
  48 228N 1095W 64  X   X( X)   6( 6)  17(23)   9(32)   X(32)   X(32)
  
  
  72 240N 1125W 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  14(16)  33(49)  10(59)   1(60)
  72 240N 1125W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  19(22)   6(28)   X(28)
  72 240N 1125W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)   4(16)   X(16)
  
  
  96 245N 1155W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  16(17)  19(36)   3(39)
  96 245N 1155W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   7(11)   2(13)
  96 245N 1155W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
  
  
 120 245N 1190W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   4(15)
 120 245N 1190W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 120 245N 1190W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
  
                - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
 FCST MAX WIND    115    125     125     120     105      90      70
 FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
  
                                                                     
 $$                                                                  
 FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH                                                 
                                                                     
                                                                     
 
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