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 142 
 FOPZ11 KNHC 301436
 PWSEP1
 HURRICANE JOHN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   9                  
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006               
 1500 UTC WED AUG 30 2006                                            
                                                                     
 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6
 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115  
 KTS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR.                                          
                                                                     
 CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
    ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
    ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
    ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
 FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                     
 PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
     IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
         AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
    (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
         12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                     
 PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
 X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
 LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
    PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                     
 Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
    PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
    HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                     
                                                                     
   - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                     
                FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
   TIME       12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
 PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
              00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
                                                                     
 FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                     
 P ABREOJOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)  10(20)   2(22)
 P ABREOJOS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)
  
 CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   1( 1)  12(13)  30(43)  25(68)   4(72)   1(73)
 CABO SAN LUCAS 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)  15(17)  21(38)   2(40)   1(41)
 CABO SAN LUCAS 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)  13(22)   X(22)   1(23)
  
 SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   1( 1)  13(14)  30(44)  26(70)   3(73)   1(74)
 SAN JOSE CABO  50  X   X( X)   2( 2)  17(19)  21(40)   2(42)   1(43)
 SAN JOSE CABO  64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)  14(22)   1(23)   X(23)
  
 LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  20(23)  34(57)   6(63)   X(63)
 LA PAZ         50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)  19(27)   3(30)   X(30)
 LA PAZ         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  10(13)   2(15)   X(15)
  
 LORETO         34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)  17(22)   8(30)   1(31)
 LORETO         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)
 LORETO         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
  
 HERMOSILLO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
  
 BAHIA KINO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)
  
 GUAYMAS        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   4(10)   X(10)
  
 HUATABAMPO     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)  10(14)   4(18)   X(18)
 HUATABAMPO     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
  
 LOS MOCHIS     34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)  16(26)   3(29)   1(30)
 LOS MOCHIS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
  
 CULICAN        34  X   X( X)   4( 4)  18(22)  22(44)   4(48)   1(49)
 CULICAN        50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  10(16)   2(18)   1(19)
 CULICAN        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
  
 MAZATLAN       34  X   3( 3)  21(24)  15(39)   8(47)   1(48)   X(48)
 MAZATLAN       50  X   X( X)   5( 5)   7(12)   3(15)   1(16)   X(16)
 MAZATLAN       64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
  
 SAN BLAS       34  2  18(20)  28(48)   4(52)   4(56)   X(56)   1(57)
 SAN BLAS       50  X   2( 2)  12(14)   3(17)   1(18)   1(19)   X(19)
 SAN BLAS       64  X   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
  
 P VALLARTA     34  2  52(54)  18(72)   2(74)   2(76)   X(76)   X(76)
 P VALLARTA     50  X  14(14)  19(33)   2(35)   1(36)   X(36)   X(36)
 P VALLARTA     64  X   4( 4)  11(15)   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
  
 BARRA NAVIDAD  34 25  64(89)   2(91)   X(91)   X(91)   1(92)   X(92)
 BARRA NAVIDAD  50  2  58(60)   5(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)
 BARRA NAVIDAD  64  X  37(37)   3(40)   1(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)
  
 MANZANILLO     34 42  46(88)   2(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)
 MANZANILLO     50  4  55(59)   2(61)   X(61)   1(62)   X(62)   X(62)
 MANZANILLO     64  1  29(30)   1(31)   X(31)   1(32)   X(32)   X(32)
  
 L CARDENAS     34 93   1(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)
 L CARDENAS     50 42   1(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)
 L CARDENAS     64 10   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
  
 ZIHUATANEJO    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 ZIHUATANEJO    50  6   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
  
 ACAPULCO       34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
  
 ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   6(13)   2(15)   X(15)
 ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
  
 ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)
  
 ISLAS MARIAS   34  1  21(22)  47(69)   8(77)   4(81)   X(81)   X(81)
 ISLAS MARIAS   50  X   3( 3)  36(39)   8(47)   3(50)   X(50)   X(50)
 ISLAS MARIAS   64  X   1( 1)  19(20)   8(28)   2(30)   X(30)   X(30)
  
                                                                     
   - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                     
                FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
   TIME       12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
 PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
              00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
                                                                     
 FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
  HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                     
  12 176N 1036W 34 97   2(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
  12 176N 1036W 50 81   8(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)
  12 176N 1036W 64 60  11(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)
  
  24 193N 1056W 34  9  74(83)   6(89)   X(89)   X(89)   1(90)   X(90)
  24 193N 1056W 50  1  56(57)  12(69)   X(69)   1(70)   X(70)   X(70)
  24 193N 1056W 64  X  36(36)  12(48)   X(48)   1(49)   X(49)   X(49)
  
  36 210N 1073W 34  1  21(22)  52(74)   9(83)   3(86)   X(86)   X(86)
  36 210N 1073W 50  X   4( 4)  41(45)  12(57)   4(61)   1(62)   X(62)
  36 210N 1073W 64  X   1( 1)  27(28)  10(38)   3(41)   X(41)   X(41)
  
  48 223N 1087W 34  X   3( 3)  32(35)  29(64)  14(78)   2(80)   X(80)
  48 223N 1087W 50  X   X( X)  12(12)  25(37)  11(48)   2(50)   X(50)
  48 223N 1087W 64  X   X( X)   6( 6)  15(21)   8(29)   1(30)   X(30)
  
  
  72 235N 1115W 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  15(17)  32(49)  10(59)   1(60)
  72 235N 1115W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  19(22)   6(28)   X(28)
  72 235N 1115W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)   3(15)   X(15)
  
  
  96 240N 1150W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)  21(33)   4(37)
  96 240N 1150W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   2(12)
  96 240N 1150W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
  
  
 120 240N 1190W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   5(13)
 120 240N 1190W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 120 240N 1190W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
  
                - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
 FCST MAX WIND    125    125     125     120     105      90      75
 FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
  
                                                                     
 $$                                                                  
 FORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN                                                 
                                                                     
                                                                     
 
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