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 767 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 301505
 TCDEP1
 HURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006
 800 AM PDT WED AUG 30 2006
  
 THE UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS ABLE TO
 INVESTIGATE JOHN THIS MORNING JUST AFTER THE EYE REAPPEARED ON
 SATELLITE IMAGERY.  A 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 126 KT WAS
 REPORTED ON THE OUTBOUND LEG NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...THIS REDUCES
 TO 113 KT AT THE SURFACE...AND IS CONSISTENT WITH A DROPSONDE
 MEASUREMENT IN THE NORTHEAST EYEWALL.  FURTHERMORE... DVORAK
 CLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB WERE 6.0 OR 115 KT.  THE
 INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 115 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...AND JOHN HAS
 NOW REACHED CATEGORY FOUR STATUS ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE
 SCALE.  OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE
 LOW...AND THE WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 30 DEGREES
 CELSIUS... CONSEQUENTLY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ANTICIPATES
 ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING AND MAINTAINS JOHN AS A CATEGORY FOUR
 THROUGH 48 HOURS.  AFTER WHICH...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DUE
 TO THE HURRICANE INTERACTING WITH LAND AND EVENTUALLY ENCOUNTERING
 COOLER WATERS.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/10. JOHN SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE
 NORTHWEST AND PARALLEL VERY CLOSE TO THE WEST COAST OF
 MEXICO...AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MIDDLE- TO
 UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK
 FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS
 TRACK AND IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS
 CONU. THERE REMAINS A HIGHER THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK
 AFTER THREE DAYS...AND THE GFDL MODEL STILL TAKES JOHN
 NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
 
 THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY FROM THE AIRCRAFT
 OBSERVATIONS.  THE UPDATED TRACK FURTHER TO THE EAST AND THE
 EXPANDED WIND RADII HAVE PROMPTED THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO TO
 ADJUST THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      30/1500Z 16.6N 102.3W   115 KT
  12HR VT     31/0000Z 17.6N 103.6W   125 KT
  24HR VT     31/1200Z 19.3N 105.6W   125 KT
  36HR VT     01/0000Z 21.0N 107.3W   125 KT
  48HR VT     01/1200Z 22.3N 108.7W   120 KT
  72HR VT     02/1200Z 23.5N 111.5W   105 KT
  96HR VT     03/1200Z 24.0N 115.0W    90 KT
 120HR VT     04/1200Z 24.0N 119.0W    75 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN
  
 
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