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 980 
 FOPZ11 KNHC 300245
 PWSEP1
 HURRICANE JOHN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   7                  
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006               
 0300 UTC WED AUG 30 2006                                            
                                                                     
 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2
 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100  
 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/HR.                                          
                                                                     
 CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
    ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
    ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
    ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
 FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                     
 PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
     IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
         AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
    (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
         00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                     
 PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
 X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
 LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
    PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                     
 Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
    PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
    HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                     
                                                                     
   - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                     
                FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
   TIME       00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
 PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
              12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
                                                                     
 FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                     
 P ABREOJOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   2(12)
  
 CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)  34(46)  10(56)   1(57)
 CABO SAN LUCAS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  18(21)   6(27)   1(28)
 CABO SAN LUCAS 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   3(13)   X(13)
  
 SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)  34(45)   8(53)   1(54)
 SAN JOSE CABO  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  16(19)   5(24)   X(24)
 SAN JOSE CABO  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   2(10)   1(11)
  
 LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  22(27)  10(37)   2(39)
 LA PAZ         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   4(11)   1(12)
 LA PAZ         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
  
 LORETO         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   6(12)   2(14)
 LORETO         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
  
 BAHIA KINO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
  
 GUAYMAS        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
  
 HUATABAMPO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)
  
 LOS MOCHIS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   5(12)   1(13)
  
 CULICAN        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  13(17)   5(22)   1(23)
 CULICAN        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)
  
 MAZATLAN       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)  11(23)   2(25)   1(26)
 MAZATLAN       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)
  
 SAN BLAS       34  X   1( 1)  13(14)  16(30)   8(38)   1(39)   X(39)
 SAN BLAS       50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   3(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 SAN BLAS       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
  
 P VALLARTA     34  X   3( 3)  32(35)  16(51)   7(58)   1(59)   X(59)
 P VALLARTA     50  X   X( X)   7( 7)  10(17)   3(20)   1(21)   X(21)
 P VALLARTA     64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
  
 BARRA NAVIDAD  34  1  20(21)  46(67)   7(74)   2(76)   X(76)   X(76)
 BARRA NAVIDAD  50  X   3( 3)  30(33)   6(39)   2(41)   X(41)   X(41)
 BARRA NAVIDAD  64  X   X( X)  14(14)   5(19)   1(20)   X(20)   X(20)
  
 MANZANILLO     34  2  26(28)  38(66)   4(70)   2(72)   1(73)   X(73)
 MANZANILLO     50  X   3( 3)  27(30)   4(34)   1(35)   X(35)   X(35)
 MANZANILLO     64  X   X( X)  11(11)   2(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)
  
 L CARDENAS     34 28  44(72)   2(74)   X(74)   1(75)   X(75)   X(75)
 L CARDENAS     50  2  24(26)   3(29)   X(29)   1(30)   X(30)   X(30)
 L CARDENAS     64  X  10(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
  
 ZIHUATANEJO    34 50  18(68)   1(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)
 ZIHUATANEJO    50  6  13(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 ZIHUATANEJO    64  1   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
  
 ACAPULCO       34 44   2(46)   1(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)
 ACAPULCO       50  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
  
 P MALDONADO    34  4   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
  
 ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)  19(27)   4(31)   1(32)
 ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)
 ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
  
 ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   3(13)
 ISLA CLARION   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
  
 ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   1( 1)  16(17)  30(47)  13(60)   1(61)   1(62)
 ISLAS MARIAS   50  X   X( X)   3( 3)  16(19)   7(26)   1(27)   1(28)
 ISLAS MARIAS   64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   6(13)   X(13)   X(13)
  
                                                                     
   - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                     
                FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
   TIME       00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
 PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
              12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
                                                                     
 FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
  HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                     
  12 160N 1017W 34 98   1(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
  12 160N 1017W 50 86   7(93)   1(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)
  12 160N 1017W 64 56  14(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)
  
  24 172N 1037W 34 14  75(89)   6(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)
  24 172N 1037W 50  2  61(63)  11(74)   1(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)
  24 172N 1037W 64  X  37(37)  12(49)   1(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)
  
  36 188N 1057W 34  1  19(20)  56(76)   8(84)   2(86)   X(86)   X(86)
  36 188N 1057W 50  X   3( 3)  45(48)  12(60)   2(62)   1(63)   X(63)
  36 188N 1057W 64  X   1( 1)  25(26)  11(37)   2(39)   X(39)   X(39)
  
  48 202N 1076W 34  X   1( 1)  27(28)  37(65)  15(80)   1(81)   1(82)
  48 202N 1076W 50  X   X( X)   7( 7)  31(38)  14(52)   1(53)   X(53)
  48 202N 1076W 64  X   X( X)   2( 2)  17(19)  10(29)   1(30)   X(30)
  
  
  72 218N 1110W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)  41(51)  12(63)   1(64)
  72 218N 1110W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  20(22)   8(30)   X(30)
  72 218N 1110W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)   4(16)   1(17)
  
  
  96 225N 1145W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)  25(37)   6(43)
  96 225N 1145W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)   3(15)
  96 225N 1145W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)
  
  
 120 225N 1180W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)   9(21)
 120 225N 1180W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)
 120 225N 1180W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
  
                - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
 FCST MAX WIND    115    120     120     115     110     100      90
 FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
  
                                                                     
 $$                                                                  
 FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN                                                    
                                                                     
                                                                     
 
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