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 121 
 FOPZ11 KNHC 292041
 PWSEP1
 HURRICANE JOHN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6                  
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006               
 2100 UTC TUE AUG 29 2006                                            
                                                                     
 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4
 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100   
 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/HR.                                          
                                                                     
 CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
    ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
    ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
    ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
 FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                     
 PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
     IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
         AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
    (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
         18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                     
 PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
 X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
 LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
    PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                     
 Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
    PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
    HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                     
                                                                     
   - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                     
                FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
   TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
 PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
              06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
                                                                     
 FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                     
 P ABREOJOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   3( 9)
  
 CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  30(33)  11(44)   3(47)
 CABO SAN LUCAS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   5(16)   1(17)
 CABO SAN LUCAS 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)
  
 SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  27(30)  10(40)   3(43)
 SAN JOSE CABO  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   4(13)   1(14)
 SAN JOSE CABO  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)
  
 LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  15(16)  11(27)   3(30)
 LA PAZ         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   1( 8)
 LA PAZ         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
  
 LORETO         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)   2(11)
  
 GUAYMAS        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
  
 HUATABAMPO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)
  
 LOS MOCHIS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   2(10)
  
 CULICAN        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   6(15)   2(17)
 CULICAN        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
  
 MAZATLAN       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)  10(13)   3(16)   1(17)
 MAZATLAN       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
  
 SAN BLAS       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)  11(23)   2(25)   X(25)
 SAN BLAS       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)
  
 P VALLARTA     34  X   1( 1)   8( 9)  21(30)  10(40)   2(42)   X(42)
 P VALLARTA     50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   4(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 P VALLARTA     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
  
 BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   3( 3)  31(34)  21(55)   7(62)   X(62)   1(63)
 BARRA NAVIDAD  50  X   X( X)   7( 7)  13(20)   4(24)   X(24)   X(24)
 BARRA NAVIDAD  64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   2(11)   X(11)   1(12)
  
 MANZANILLO     34  X   4( 4)  32(36)  16(52)   5(57)   X(57)   1(58)
 MANZANILLO     50  X   X( X)   8( 8)   9(17)   2(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 MANZANILLO     64  X   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
  
 L CARDENAS     34  3  32(35)  13(48)   2(50)   1(51)   X(51)   X(51)
 L CARDENAS     50  X   6( 6)   6(12)   2(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 L CARDENAS     64  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
  
 ZIHUATANEJO    34  7  26(33)   5(38)   2(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)
 ZIHUATANEJO    50  X   5( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
  
 ACAPULCO       34 19   6(25)   1(26)   X(26)   X(26)   1(27)   X(27)
  
 P MALDONADO    34  6   2( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
  
 ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  28(33)   6(39)   1(40)
 ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   3(12)   1(13)
 ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
  
 ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)   4(15)
 ISLA CLARION   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
  
 ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  17(20)  20(40)   2(42)   1(43)
 ISLAS MARIAS   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)   1(13)   1(14)
 ISLAS MARIAS   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
  
                                                                     
   - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                     
                FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
   TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
 PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
              06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
                                                                     
 FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
  HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                     
  12 150N 1011W 34 98   1(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
  12 150N 1011W 50 84   8(92)   1(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)
  12 150N 1011W 64 52  16(68)   1(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)
  
  24 160N 1030W 34 19  70(89)   6(95)   X(95)   1(96)   X(96)   X(96)
  24 160N 1030W 50  2  60(62)  11(73)   1(74)   1(75)   X(75)   X(75)
  24 160N 1030W 64  X  36(36)  12(48)   1(49)   1(50)   X(50)   X(50)
  
  36 173N 1048W 34  1  26(27)  51(78)  10(88)   2(90)   X(90)   X(90)
  36 173N 1048W 50  X   4( 4)  43(47)  13(60)   3(63)   X(63)   X(63)
  36 173N 1048W 64  X   1( 1)  25(26)  11(37)   2(39)   X(39)   X(39)
  
  48 188N 1068W 34  X   1( 1)  24(25)  40(65)  15(80)   1(81)   X(81)
  48 188N 1068W 50  X   X( X)   5( 5)  32(37)  15(52)   1(53)   1(54)
  48 188N 1068W 64  X   X( X)   2( 2)  15(17)  11(28)   X(28)   X(28)
  
  
  72 210N 1105W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  44(50)  11(61)   2(63)
  72 210N 1105W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  21(22)   7(29)   1(30)
  72 210N 1105W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   5(16)   X(16)
  
  
  96 220N 1130W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  19(20)  20(40)   5(45)
  96 220N 1130W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   8(14)   3(17)
  96 220N 1130W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)
  
  
 120 220N 1160W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  13(16)   8(24)
 120 220N 1160W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)
 120 220N 1160W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
  
                - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
 FCST MAX WIND    115    120     120     115     110     100      90
 FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
  
                                                                     
 $$                                                                  
 FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH                                                 
                                                                     
                                                                     
 
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