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 022 
 FOPZ11 KNHC 291501
 PWSEP1
 HURRICANE JOHN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5                  
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006               
 1500 UTC TUE AUG 29 2006                                            
                                                                     
 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3
 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS
 ...80 MPH...130 KM/HR.                                              
                                                                     
 CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
    ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
    ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
    ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
 FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                     
 PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
     IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
         AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
    (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
         12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                     
 PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
 X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
 LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
    PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                     
 Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
    PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
    HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                     
                                                                     
   - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                     
                FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
   TIME       12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
 PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
              00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
                                                                     
 FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                     
 P ABREOJOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
  
 CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  22(24)  11(35)   1(36)
 CABO SAN LUCAS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   4(10)   1(11)
 CABO SAN LUCAS 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
  
 SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  21(22)   9(31)   1(32)
 SAN JOSE CABO  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)
 SAN JOSE CABO  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
  
 LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   8(18)   1(19)
 LA PAZ         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)
  
 LORETO         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)
  
 HUATABAMPO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
  
 LOS MOCHIS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)
  
 CULICAN        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   3(10)   1(11)
  
 MAZATLAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   3(13)   X(13)
 MAZATLAN       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
  
 SAN BLAS       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)  12(19)   2(21)   X(21)
 SAN BLAS       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
  
 P VALLARTA     34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  16(19)  14(33)   2(35)   X(35)
 P VALLARTA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 P VALLARTA     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
  
 BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   1( 1)  15(16)  27(43)   9(52)   1(53)   X(53)
 BARRA NAVIDAD  50  X   X( X)   2( 2)  12(14)   5(19)   1(20)   X(20)
 BARRA NAVIDAD  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
  
 MANZANILLO     34  X   2( 2)  16(18)  23(41)   7(48)   X(48)   X(48)
 MANZANILLO     50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)   4(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 MANZANILLO     64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
  
 L CARDENAS     34  1  17(18)  22(40)   3(43)   2(45)   1(46)   X(46)
 L CARDENAS     50  X   2( 2)   9(11)   1(12)   X(12)   1(13)   X(13)
 L CARDENAS     64  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
  
 ZIHUATANEJO    34  2  21(23)  12(35)   2(37)   1(38)   X(38)   X(38)
 ZIHUATANEJO    50  X   3( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
  
 ACAPULCO       34  9  13(22)   2(24)   1(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)
 ACAPULCO       50  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
  
 P MALDONADO    34  6   3( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
  
 ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  27(30)   8(38)   X(38)
 ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   3(12)   1(13)
 ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
  
 ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   3(13)
 ISLA CLARION   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
  
 ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)  23(34)   4(38)   X(38)
 ISLAS MARIAS   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   2(11)   X(11)
 ISLAS MARIAS   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
  
                                                                     
   - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                     
                FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
   TIME       12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
 PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
              00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
                                                                     
 FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
  HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                     
  12 148N 1004W 34 96   2(98)   X(98)   1(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
  12 148N 1004W 50 73  11(84)   1(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)
  12 148N 1004W 64 41  16(57)   1(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)
  
  24 156N 1022W 34 12  73(85)   8(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)
  24 156N 1022W 50  1  54(55)  13(68)   1(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)
  24 156N 1022W 64  X  30(30)  11(41)   2(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)
  
  36 167N 1043W 34  1  18(19)  55(74)  11(85)   2(87)   X(87)   X(87)
  36 167N 1043W 50  X   3( 3)  41(44)  13(57)   3(60)   X(60)   X(60)
  36 167N 1043W 64  X   1( 1)  23(24)   9(33)   1(34)   X(34)   X(34)
  
  48 182N 1062W 34  X   1( 1)  24(25)  38(63)  16(79)   1(80)   X(80)
  48 182N 1062W 50  X   X( X)   5( 5)  29(34)  14(48)   1(49)   X(49)
  48 182N 1062W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)  15(16)   9(25)   1(26)   X(26)
  
  
  72 205N 1100W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)  43(48)  10(58)   1(59)
  72 205N 1100W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  19(20)   7(27)   X(27)
  72 205N 1100W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   3(13)   X(13)
  
  
  96 210N 1125W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  20(20)  18(38)   2(40)
  96 210N 1125W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   8(12)   1(13)
  96 210N 1125W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)
  
  
 120 215N 1155W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  10(13)   4(17)
 120 215N 1155W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
 120 215N 1155W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
  
                - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
 FCST MAX WIND     85     95     105     105     100      85      65
 FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
  
                                                                     
 $$                                                                  
 FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH                                                
                                                                     
                                                                     
 
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