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 911 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 291500
 TCDEP1
 HURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006
 800 AM PDT TUE AUG 29 2006
 
 JOHN HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY THIS MORNING...AND FIRST LIGHT
 VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE BANDING FEATURE AND AN OBSCURED
 EYE FEATURE TRYING TO DEVELOP.  THESE FEATURES ARE ALSO APPARENT ON
 A RECENT TRMM MICROWAVE PASS FROM 1156 UTC.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS
 FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 65 KT AND 75 KT RESPECTIVELY...AND THE
 INITIAL INTENSITY IS A BLEND OF TWO AND IS SET AT 70 KT.  JOHN IS
 NOW THE SIXTH HURRICANE OF THE EAST PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON.  JOHN
 IS IN A CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SHEAR AND VERY WARM WATERS FOR
 CONTINUED STRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST TAKES
 JOHN TO A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE IN 24 TO 36 HOURS...WHICH FOLLOWS
 CLOSELY WITH THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE INTENSITY
 GUIDANCE...AS WELL AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  IN THE LATER
 PERIODS...THE GFDL MODEL WEAKENS JOHN SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO THE
 PROXIMITY OF IT'S TRACK FORECAST TO LAND.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK
 FORECAST MAINTAINS THE HURRICANE OVER WATER THROUGH FIVE DAYS AND
 GRADUALLY WEAKENS THE CYCLONE IN DAYS 4 AND 5 AS A RESULT OF COOLER
 WATERS.   
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/8...SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN BEFORE.  JOHN IS
 EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4
 DAYS WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  THE HURRICANE IS
 FORECAST TO BE STEERED ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-
 TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO.  MOST OF THE
 MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...HOWEVER
 THE GFDL MODEL ANTICIPATES THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE TO BE
 FURTHER TO THE EAST ALLOWING THE HURRICANE TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE
 WEST COAST OF MEXICO AND EVENTUALLY OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA.  THE
 OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST STAYS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AS WELL
 AS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
 AS A RESULT OF THE CONTINUED STRENGTHENING OF JOHN...THE WIND RADII
 HAVE BEEN EXPANDED.  THIS HAS PROMPTED THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO TO
 ADJUST THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS. 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      29/1500Z 14.3N  99.0W    70 KT
  12HR VT     30/0000Z 14.8N 100.4W    85 KT
  24HR VT     30/1200Z 15.6N 102.2W    95 KT
  36HR VT     31/0000Z 16.7N 104.3W   105 KT
  48HR VT     31/1200Z 18.2N 106.2W   105 KT
  72HR VT     01/1200Z 20.5N 110.0W   100 KT
  96HR VT     02/1200Z 21.0N 112.5W    85 KT
 120HR VT     03/1200Z 21.5N 115.5W    65 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH
  
 
 
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