Image Department Meteorology
Meteorology_Home Weather_Server News/Seminars
People
Research
Academics Application Contact_Us

Hawaiian_Weather
US_Mainland_Weather
Tropical_Weather
Satellite_Imagery
Radar_Imagery
Marine
Numerical_Models
LAPS
Forecasts
Observations
Archive
Links Disclaimer
Space
SOEST_Home
University_of_Hawaii_Home

 436 
 FOPZ11 KNHC 282051
 PWSEP1
 TROPICAL STORM ELEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2           
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006               
 2100 UTC MON AUG 28 2006                                            
                                                                     
 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR       
 LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
 WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR.                              
                                                                     
 CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
    ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
    ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
    ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
 FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                     
 PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
     IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
         AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
    (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
         18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                     
 PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
 X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
 LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
    PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                     
 Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
    PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
    HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                     
                                                                     
   - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                     
                FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
   TIME       18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
 PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
              06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
                                                                     
 FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                     
 P ABREOJOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
  
 CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)  18(28)   2(30)
 CABO SAN LUCAS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   X( 9)
 CABO SAN LUCAS 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
  
 SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  16(25)   2(27)
 SAN JOSE CABO  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   X( 8)
 SAN JOSE CABO  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
  
 LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  12(16)   2(18)
 LA PAZ         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
  
 LORETO         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)
  
 HUATABAMPO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
  
 LOS MOCHIS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)
  
 CULICAN        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)   1(11)
  
 MAZATLAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   5(13)   X(13)
  
 SAN BLAS       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  13(14)   4(18)   X(18)
 SAN BLAS       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
  
 P VALLARTA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  22(25)   3(28)   X(28)
 P VALLARTA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
  
 BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)  31(42)   2(44)   X(44)
 BARRA NAVIDAD  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)   1(13)   X(13)
 BARRA NAVIDAD  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
  
 MANZANILLO     34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)  25(38)   2(40)   X(40)
 MANZANILLO     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 MANZANILLO     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
  
 L CARDENAS     34  X   2( 2)  12(14)  20(34)   8(42)   X(42)   X(42)
 L CARDENAS     50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   4(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 L CARDENAS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
  
 ZIHUATANEJO    34  X   3( 3)  16(19)  15(34)   4(38)   X(38)   1(39)
 ZIHUATANEJO    50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
  
 ACAPULCO       34  1  11(12)  15(27)   6(33)   1(34)   X(34)   X(34)
 ACAPULCO       50  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
  
 P MALDONADO    34  5  16(21)   5(26)   3(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)
  
 P ANGEL        34 13   5(18)   1(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
  
 HUATULCO       34 10   3(13)   2(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
  
 ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  17(17)  16(33)   1(34)
 ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   8(13)   X(13)
 ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)
  
 ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   3(11)
  
 ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  22(23)   6(29)   1(30)
 ISLAS MARIAS   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)
 ISLAS MARIAS   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
  
                                                                     
   - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                     
                FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
   TIME       18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
 PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
              06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
                                                                     
 FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
  HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                     
  12 137N  979W 34 89   5(94)   1(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)
  12 137N  979W 50 15  19(34)   1(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)
  12 137N  979W 64  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
  
  24 141N  997W 34 18  58(76)  10(86)   1(87)   1(88)   X(88)   X(88)
  24 141N  997W 50  X  28(28)  13(41)   2(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)
  24 141N  997W 64  X   6( 6)   6(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
  
  36 150N 1016W 34  1  21(22)  46(68)  12(80)   3(83)   X(83)   X(83)
  36 150N 1016W 50  X   2( 2)  25(27)  13(40)   2(42)   X(42)   X(42)
  36 150N 1016W 64  X   X( X)  10(10)   5(15)   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)
  
  48 162N 1037W 34  X   2( 2)  20(22)  36(58)  17(75)   X(75)   X(75)
  48 162N 1037W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)  22(24)  13(37)   X(37)   X(37)
  48 162N 1037W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   7(16)   X(16)   X(16)
  
  
  72 195N 1085W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  43(45)  13(58)   1(59)
  72 195N 1085W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  17(17)   8(25)   1(26)
  72 195N 1085W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   4(12)   X(12)
  
  
  96 215N 1120W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  24(33)   3(36)
  96 215N 1120W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   1(12)
  96 215N 1120W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)
  
  
 120 225N 1140W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  17(19)   5(24)
 120 225N 1140W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)
 120 225N 1140W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)
  
                - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
 FCST MAX WIND     50     60      70      80      90      85      60
 FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
  
                                                                     
 $$                                                                  
 FORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA                                                    
                                                                     
                                                                     
 
Return to the Tropical Systems Page for JOHN

Back to main Tropical Weather page




This page is maintained voluntarily by the MKWC and the UHMET faculty, staff, and students.
It was last modified on: Thu, Jul 23 2020 - 2003 UTC
Send comments to: Ryan Lyman