628 
 WTNT41 KNHC 060252
 TCDAT1
 
 HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  34
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015
 1100 PM AST MON OCT 05 2015
 
 While Joaquin's eye is no longer present in the shortwave infrared
 imagery from the GOES-East geostationary satellite this evening, a
 distinct eye has been visible in the microwave imagery from the
 SSMIS polar orbiting satellite passes at 2231Z and 2316Z.
 There is even a suggestion of a concentric eyewall at about a 50 nm
 radius.  Dvorak Current Intensity numbers from SAB and TAFB remain
 at 4.5, supporting continuing with an intensity of 75 kt.  The wind
 radii were expanded slightly based upon a CIRA AMSU wind radii
 analysis from 2104Z.
 
 Joaquin is currently embedded in moderate southwesterly vertical
 shear with somewhat dry mid-tropospheric air, and is traversing
 over SSTs near 27C.  During the next day, the shear picks up
 substantially.  However, with Joaquin moving in the same direction
 as the shear vector, the negative impact of the shear is lessened as
 indicated in the SHIPS output.  Within two days, Joaquin will move
 north of the Gulf Stream and will encounter very cold waters while
 the shear increases even more.  This would typically lead toward a
 quick decay of a tropical cyclone, but Joaquin is expected to
 transform into an extratropical cyclone in about 48 hours.  The
 baroclinic processes should allow Joaquin instead to slowly decay.
 The intensity forecast is based upon the tightly clustered IVCN
 multi-model consensus through 36 hours, and then is based on
 guidance provided by the Ocean Prediction Center for the 48-120 hour
 period.
 
 The initial motion of Joaquin is 35 deg/12 kt, fairly confidently
 known because of the microwave fixes.  Joaquin is being swept up in
 the mid-latitude westerlies and should begin accelerating off toward
 the east-northeast during the next two to three days.  The track
 prediction is based upon the tightly clustered TVCN multi-model
 consensus through 36 hours, and then is based on guidance provided
 by the Ocean Prediction Center for the 48-120 hour period.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  06/0300Z 36.8N  62.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
  12H  06/1200Z 38.1N  59.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
  24H  07/0000Z 39.6N  54.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
  36H  07/1200Z 41.0N  47.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
  48H  08/0000Z 42.0N  38.8W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  72H  09/0000Z 45.0N  23.8W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  96H  10/0000Z 46.0N  17.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 120H  11/0000Z 48.0N  12.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
 $$
 Forecaster Landsea