405 
 WTNT41 KNHC 040843
 TCDAT1
 
 HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015
 500 AM AST SUN OCT 04 2015
 
 The cloud pattern of Joaquin has continued to gradually deteriorate
 overnight with most of the deep convection now located over the
 eastern and southeastern portions of the circulation.  The earlier
 reconnaissance aircraft mission reported peak 700-mb flight-level
 winds of 125 kt, and SFMR surface winds of 94 kt during its last
 pass through the southeastern portion of eyewall just before 0500
 UTC.  Dropsonde and SFMR data suggest that the flight-level winds
 are not mixing down as efficiently as before, and the initial
 intensity is lowered to 105 kt, which is a blend of the various
 reconnaissance wind data.  Another Air Force Reserve Hurricane
 Hunter aircraft is currently en route to the storm and should
 provide a better assessment of Joaquin's intensity this morning.
 
 Recent center fixes indicate that the motion of Joaquin has started
 to bend toward the north-northeast, but the longer term motion is
 still northeastward or 040/17 kt.  The hurricane should turn
 north-northeastward this morning, and pass near Bermuda this
 afternoon as it moves between a large mid- to upper-level low to
 its west and a mid-level ridge over the central Atlantic.  After
 passing the Bermuda Joaquin is expected to turn northeastward, then
 east-northeastward after 48 hours when it reaches the mid-latitude
 westerlies.  The updated NHC track is similar to the previous
 advisory and it remains near the center of the tightly cluster
 guidance models.
 
 Moderate to strong southwesterly shear is expected to cause some
 weakening during the next 12 to 24 hours, but Joaquin is forecast to
 remain a strong hurricane while it passes near or over Bermuda later
 today.  Gradual weakening should continue after 24 hours, as the
 hurricane encounters cooler waters and remains within an environment
 of moderate shear.  Joaquin is expected to become an extratropical
 cyclone over the North Atlantic in a little more than 72 hours.
 The official intensity forecast is close to the model consensus
 through 72 hours, and is based on guidance from the Ocean Prediction
 Center at 96 and 120 h when the cyclone will be post-tropical.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  04/0900Z 29.7N  67.7W  105 KT 120 MPH
  12H  04/1800Z 31.6N  66.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
  24H  05/0600Z 33.7N  65.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
  36H  05/1800Z 35.5N  64.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
  48H  06/0600Z 37.6N  61.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
  72H  07/0600Z 41.8N  49.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
  96H  08/0600Z 45.0N  33.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 120H  09/0600Z 50.0N  21.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brown