061 
 WTNT41 KNHC 032032
 TCDAT1
 
 HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015
 500 PM EDT SAT OCT 03 2015
 
 The cloud pattern is not as impressive as it was earlier today,
 but the eye continues to be distinct. Both objective and subjective
 T-numbers are decreasing slightly, and on this basis, the initial
 intensity has been set at 130 kt. Another plane will investigate
 Joaquin in a few hours.  Despite the observed intensification this
 morning, the NHC forecast still calls for gradual weakening due to
 increasing shear and cooler waters. Joaquin is forecast to become a
 strong extratropical cyclone by the end of the forecast period.
 
 Earlier reconnaissance data and current satellite fixes indicate
 that Joaquin is moving toward the northeast or 045 degrees at 15
 kt.  The hurricane continues to be steered by the flow between an
 eastward-moving trough over southeastern United States and a
 weakening subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic. Joaquin is
 forecast to turn more to the north-northeast as the trough swings
 eastward. Then, in about 3 days, the hurricane will be fully
 embedded in the mid-latitude flow and will turn to the northeast
 with an increase in forward speed. The NHC forecast is very similar
 to the previous one, primarily during the first 24 to 36 hours, and
 is on top of the multi-model consensus and the consensus of the
 ECMWF and the GFS models.
 
 Although the confidence in the track forecast is quite high due to
 the good model agreement, a small deviation to the east of the
 forecast track would bring the core of the hurricane with stronger
 winds to Bermuda.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  03/2100Z 27.0N  70.5W  130 KT 150 MPH
  12H  04/0600Z 29.0N  68.7W  125 KT 145 MPH
  24H  04/1800Z 31.5N  67.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
  36H  05/0600Z 33.7N  66.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
  48H  05/1800Z 36.0N  64.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
  72H  06/1800Z 40.0N  56.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
  96H  07/1800Z 45.0N  40.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 120H  08/1800Z 50.0N  25.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
 $$
 Forecaster Avila