325 
 WTNT21 KNHC 300837
 TCMAT1
 
 TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015
 0900 UTC WED SEP 30 2015
 
 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
 THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR
 THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG
 ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.
 
 THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE
 NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS EXCLUDING ANDROS ISLAND. THIS INCLUDES THE
 ABACOS...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...
 AND NEW PROVIDENCE.
 
 SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
 A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
 * CENTRAL BAHAMAS
 
 A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
 * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS EXCLUDING ANDROS ISLAND
 
 A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
 SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM
 FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
 DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
 RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
 A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
 WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS.
 
 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.4N  72.5W AT 30/0900Z
 POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
 PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 245 DEGREES AT   5 KT
 
 ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  988 MB
 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
 50 KT....... 40NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
 34 KT.......100NE 110SE  40SW  60NW.
 12 FT SEAS..150NE  90SE  60SW 120NW.
 WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
 MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
 REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.4N  72.5W AT 30/0900Z
 AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.6N  72.0W
 
 FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 25.1N  73.0W
 MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
 50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW  20NW.
 34 KT...100NE 110SE  50SW  70NW.
 
 FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 24.7N  73.8W
 MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 64 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.
 50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  30NW.
 34 KT...110NE 110SE  60SW  70NW.
 
 FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 24.7N  74.5W
 MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
 64 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.
 50 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  40NW.
 34 KT...110NE 110SE  60SW  70NW.
 
 FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 25.2N  74.7W
 MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
 50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.
 34 KT...120NE 120SE  70SW  80NW.
 
 FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 28.3N  73.5W
 MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
 50 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.
 34 KT...150NE 150SE  90SW 120NW.
 
 EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
 ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
 OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 33.0N  73.0W
 MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
 
 OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 37.0N  73.5W
 MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
 
 REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.4N  72.5W
 
 NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z
 
 $$
 FORECASTER BRENNAN