048 
 WTNT41 KNHC 280852
 TCDAT1
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015
 500 AM AST MON SEP 28 2015
 
 Shortwave and enhanced BD-Curve infrared imagery show little change
 in the depression's cloud pattern this morning.  Recently,
 however, a few bursts of deep convection are beginning to develop
 near the surface center.  Subjective intensity estimates remain
 unchanged from the previous advisory as does the initial intensity
 of 30 kt. UW-CIMSS shear product and the SHIPS model both indicate
 10-20 kt of northwesterly shear generated by a high amplitude
 upper-level ridge extending northward over the western Atlantic from
 the western Caribbean. Large-scale models show this upper-wind
 pattern persisting through day 3, which should inhibit any
 significant strengthening.  Afterward, increasing southwesterly
 shear is expected to spread over the eastern seaboard and extreme
 western Atlantic waters in response to a deep-layer mid-latitude
 trough approaching from the west.  Despite a rather harsh forecast
 upper-wind environment, the IVCN intensity consensus model shows
 slight strengthening to a tropical storm in 24 hours.  Beyond
 the 96 hour period, the global models indicate either dissipation or
 the cyclone quickly becoming absorbed by the aforementioned
 baroclinic system.  The official forecast is based on the IVCN
 consensus and indicates the cyclone merging with the frontal system
 in 5 days.
 
 The depression's center has been a bit difficult to find this
 morning, and has been moving erratically, drifting westward, or
 275/2 kt.  The cyclone should turn toward the west-northwest
 later today and continue in this general direction for a couple
 of days due to high pressure extending over the western
 Atlantic.  After that time, a northward turn is forecast with an
 increase in forward speed around day 3 in response to the
 above mentioned frontal system approaching the east coast of the
 U.S.  The NHC track forecast is nudged a little to the left of the
 previous forecast and sides with the TVCX multi-model consensus.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  28/0900Z 27.4N  68.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  28/1800Z 27.6N  69.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  29/0600Z 28.0N  70.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  29/1800Z 28.5N  70.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
  48H  30/0600Z 29.2N  71.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
  72H  01/0600Z 31.2N  72.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
  96H  02/0600Z 36.2N  72.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 120H  03/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT
 
 $$
 Forecaster Roberts