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 205 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 312034
 TCDEP3
 
 HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132015
 200 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015
 
 Jimena continues to exhibit a concentric eyewall structure around a
 20 n mi diameter eye.  The cloud tops have warmed a little during
 the past few hours, and the overall satellite presentation is not
 quite as impressive as it was several hours ago.  The Dvorak Final
 T-numbers from TAFB and SAB have decreased slightly, and the initial
 wind speed is lowered a little to 125 kt.
 
 The hurricane is still moving westward at about 14 kt, which is a
 little faster than previously predicted.  A mid-level high pressure
 system located to the north of the tropical cyclone should continue
 to steer Jimena west-northwestward in the short term, but this ridge
 is expected to weaken during the next day or two in response to an
 amplification of a mid- to upper- level trough extending
 southwestward from the western United States. This pattern change
 should cause the steering currents around Jimena to weaken,
 resulting in a gradual northwestward turn with a dramatic decrease
 in forward speed after 48 hours. The track model guidance has
 shifted a little to the left and is slightly faster than earlier,
 and the new NHC track forecast follows that theme.
 
 Jimena is likely to fluctuate in intensity during the next 12 to 24
 hours while it remains embedded in a very low wind shear environment
 and over 28 deg C waters.  After that time, a slow weakening is
 expected while SSTs decrease along the forecast track.  The NHC
 intensity forecast is just an update of the previous one and remains
 on the high side of the intensity guidance, giving some weight to
 the global models which maintain a very strong cyclone for the next
 several days.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  31/2100Z 15.9N 136.8W  125 KT 145 MPH
  12H  01/0600Z 16.4N 138.4W  125 KT 145 MPH
  24H  01/1800Z 17.1N 140.1W  120 KT 140 MPH
  36H  02/0600Z 17.6N 141.2W  110 KT 125 MPH
  48H  02/1800Z 18.2N 142.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
  72H  03/1800Z 19.2N 143.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
  96H  04/1800Z 20.2N 144.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 120H  05/1800Z 21.6N 144.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Cangialosi
 
 
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