297
WTPZ43 KNHC 301441
TCDEP3
HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015
800 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015
Infrared satellite images and a recent GCOM microwave pass indicate
that there is still some evidence of a double eyewall structure.
The southern portion of Jimena's inner eyewall has eroded a little
during the past few hours, causing a slightly asymmetric
presentation. The initial wind speed is maintained at 115 kt, based
on a blend of the satellite intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and
ADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin, though it is
possible that Jimena could be a little less intense.
The atmospheric environment is expected to remain conducive for
Jimena to remain a strong cyclone for the next several days as
the SHIPS model shows the wind shear remaining less than 10 kt. The
only negative environmental factor is cooler water with lower
oceanic heat content along the expected track. Most of the guidance
shows a slow decay of the hurricane during the next several days,
and the NHC intensity forecast follows that theme. This forecast
is in best agreement with the SHIPS model.
Jimena is moving west-northwestward at about 12 kt steered by a
subtropical ridge to its north and northeast. This general motion
is expected to persist for another day or two. After that time,
the hurricane is expected to decelerate in response to weakening
steering currents caused by an amplifying trough extending
southwestward from the western United States. The new track
forecast is adjusted a little to the right of the previous one to
come in better agreement with the latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF
models.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/1500Z 14.2N 129.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 31/0000Z 14.9N 131.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 31/1200Z 15.6N 134.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 16.2N 136.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 16.8N 138.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 17.7N 140.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 18.5N 142.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 04/1200Z 19.2N 143.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
Return to the Tropical Systems Page for JIMENA
Back to main Tropical Weather page
This page is maintained voluntarily by the MKWC and the UHMET faculty, staff, and students.
It was last modified on: Thu, Jul 23 2020 - 2003 UTC
Send comments to: Ryan Lyman
|