123 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 281432
 TCDEP3
 
 HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132015
 800 AM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015
 
 Rapid intensification of Jimena continues this morning.  Microwave
 data has shown an eye beneath the central dense overcast, and a
 more definitive eye is just now becoming apparent in infrared
 satellite imagery.  With subjective Dvorak estimates of T4.5/77 kt
 from TAFB and SAB, and an objective estimate of T4.6/80 kt from
 UW-CIMSS, Jimena's initial intensity is raised to 80 kt.
 
 Jimena is expected to remain in an environment of low shear and
 over warm water for the duration of the forecast period.  Mid-level
 moisture is high at the moment and is expected to only gradually
 decrease during the next 2 to 3 days.  The SHIPS Rapid
 Intensification Index (RII) is showing a 54 percent chance of a
 30-kt increase in intensity during the next 24 hours.  Therefore, a
 continuation of RI appears likely and is explicitly shown in the NHC
 intensity forecast.  A peak intensity is expected in about 48 hours,
 followed by gradual weakening through day 5 due to a slightly drier
 environment and lower oceanic heat content values.  The updated NHC
 intensity forecast is generally a blend of the previous forecast
 with the latest SHIPS and LGEM guidance.  It should be noted that
 once Jimena reaches its peak as a major hurricane, fluctuations in
 intensity that deviate from the official forecast are likely due to
 possible eyewall replacements.
 
 Jimena appears to have slowed down a bit, and the initial motion is
 270/10 kt.  The hurricane remains to the south of an anomalously
 strong ridge that extends southwestward from the southwestern
 United States, and this feature is expected to keep Jimena on a
 westward course for the next 24 hours.  After that time, the ridge
 is expected to weaken, which will allow Jimena to turn
 west-northwestward through day 5.  The track guidance remains in
 good agreement and very close to the previous forecast.  Therefore,
 no significant changes are noted in the updated NHC track forecast.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  28/1500Z 12.4N 122.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
  12H  29/0000Z 12.4N 123.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
  24H  29/1200Z 12.6N 125.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
  36H  30/0000Z 13.2N 127.3W  120 KT 140 MPH
  48H  30/1200Z 14.1N 129.2W  125 KT 145 MPH
  72H  31/1200Z 15.9N 133.9W  120 KT 140 MPH
  96H  01/1200Z 17.0N 138.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
 120H  02/1200Z 17.5N 140.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Berg