507 
 WTPA44 PHFO 082031
 TCDCP4
 
 TROPICAL STORM JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  53
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP132015
 ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 1100 AM HST TUE SEP 08 2015
 
 JIMENA IS A SHEARED CYCLONE AND CONSISTS OF A LARGE CIRCULATION OF
 LOW CLOUDS WITH SOME PATCHES OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF
 THE CENTER. GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE
 CENTER...THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE CONTINUED TO
 DECREASE...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 40 KT. THE
 GLOBAL MODELS SEPARATE THE LOW-LEVEL FROM THE MID-LEVEL CENTER AS
 QUICKLY AS 48 HOURS, AND SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT STRONG SHEAR
 WILL CONTINUE TO IMPINGE ON THE CYCLONE. ON THIS BASIS...THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR JIMENA TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 48
 HOURS OR SO. THE LOW COULD REMAIN LINGERING FOR A FEW MORE DAYS.
 
 THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE WEST OR 270
 DEGREES AT 6 KT. SINCE JIMENA IS BECOMING A SHALLOW CYCLONE...IT
 WILL LIKELY BE STEERED SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST OR EVEN
 WEST-SOUTHWEST BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS FOR THE NEXT 2
 TO 3 DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE REMNANT LOW WILL LIKELY TURN MORE
 TO THE NORTHWEST AWAY FROM THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AS A NEW TROUGH
 APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
 MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS NOT TOO DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS
 ONE.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  08/2100Z 26.5N 153.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  09/0600Z 26.3N 154.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  09/1800Z 25.9N 156.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
  36H  10/0600Z 25.6N 158.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
  48H  10/1800Z 25.4N 159.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  11/1800Z 25.5N 161.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  12/1800Z 26.4N 163.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  13/1800Z 31.2N 166.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 FORECASTER AVILA