749 
 WTPA44 PHFO 060232
 TCDCP4
 
 TROPICAL STORM JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  42
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP132015
 500 PM HST SAT SEP 05 2015
  
 JIMENA HAS DETERIORATED FURTHER SINCE THIS MORNING AND DEEP
 CONVECTION IN RECENT IMAGES HAS BEEN LIMITED TO A PRIMARY RAIN BAND
 IN THE NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE. ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL CENTER
 REMAINS OBSCURED...THE CURVATURE OF NUMEROUS LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES
 PROVIDES A REASONABLE APPROXIMATION OF ITS LOCATION AND CENTER
 POSITIONS FROM THE FIX AGENCIES WERE CLUSTERED FAIRLY WELL. DVORAK
 INTENSITY ESTIMATES CAME IN AT 3.5/55 KT FROM PHFO AND SAB...AND
 4.0/65 KT FROM JTWC. THE UW/CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE FROM 0000 UTC WAS 45
 KT. AN AVERAGE OF THESE ESTIMATES...55 KT...WAS USED FOR THE INITIAL
 INTENSITY OF THIS ADVISORY. A 1943 UTC ASCAT PASS WAS USED TO EXPAND
 THE WIND RADII ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION A BIT WHILE
 TRYING TO FACTOR IN THE OVERALL WEAKENING SINCE THE OBSERVATION
 TIME.
 
 A LARGE MID- AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
 ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
 ACROSS JIMENA. THIS WIND SHEAR...WHICH WAS 24 KT IN THE 0000 UTC
 UW/CIMSS ANALYSIS...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT THESE LEVELS OVER THE
 NEXT 24 HOURS THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND SLOWLY STRENGTHEN
 TO MORE THAN 30 KT AFTER 96 HOURS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG
 THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO 26.5C...WHICH IS BARELY
 ADEQUATE. GIVEN THE CURRENT DECLINING STATE OF JIMENA AND THE POOR
 UPCOMING ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS...IT APPEARS THAT SHIPS IS HANDLING
 THE SITUATION BETTER THAN THE OTHER INTENSITY MODELS SUCH AS THE
 HWRF AND GFDL. THUS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
 TOWARDS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE BUT IS CONSERVATIVE IN THAT IT
 MAINTAINS A VIABLE TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
 WHEREAS SHIPS DISSIPATES JIMENA AFTER 60 HOURS. NATURALLY...IF THE
 CONDITION OF JIMENA CONTINUES TO DECLINE...SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS WILL
 NEED TO REFLECT A QUICKER PATH TO POST-TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW STATUS.
 
 JIMENA HAS BEEN MOVING BETWEEN THE ABOVE-MENTIONED MID- AND
 UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND A
 RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THE GLOBAL MODELS STRENGTHEN THE RIDGE
 TO THE NORTH...THEN DEVELOP AN ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHWEST OF JIMENA
 AFTER 72 HOURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GENERAL WESTWARD TURN...WITH
 THE AMOUNT OF TURN VARYING AMONG THE DIFFERENT MODELS. THE CURRENT
 FORECAST HAS BEEN ALIGNED CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CLOSE
 TO THE ECMWF FORECAST TRACK ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
 ENVELOPE. NOTE THAT EVEN IF JIMENA LOSES MOST OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION
 AND BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM...THE BAM-SHALLOW FORECAST IS STILL
 RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS AND KEEPS JIMENA WELL
 NORTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. 
  
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  06/0300Z 22.5N 147.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
  12H  06/1200Z 23.4N 147.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
  24H  07/0000Z 24.4N 148.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
  36H  07/1200Z 25.0N 150.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
  48H  08/0000Z 25.4N 151.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
  72H  09/0000Z 25.0N 154.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
  96H  10/0000Z 25.0N 157.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 120H  11/0000Z 25.0N 161.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER KODAMA