538 
 WTPA44 PHFO 032054
 TCDCP4
 
 HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  33
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP132015
 1100 AM HST THU SEP 03 2015
  
 THE EYE OF JIMENA HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY CLOUD-FILLED SINCE THE 
 LAST ADVISORY...BUT A SMALL EYE STILL REMAINS THIS MORNING. LATEST 
 SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE-BASED DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES 
 INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AS SAB/JTWC/ 
 PHFO ALL INDICATED DATA-T VALUES OF T4.5/77 KT. MEANWHILE...CURRENT 
 INTENSITY VALUES WERE 5.0/90 KT FROM PHFO AND JTWC...AND 5.3/97 KT 
 FROM UW-CIMSS ADT. BLENDING THESE ESTIMATES...WITH AN EMPHASIS ON 
 THE SUBJECTIVE VALUES...SUPPORTS A SLIGHT LOWERING...TO 90 KT...OF 
 THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS PACKAGE. 
 
 JIMENA IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF NEARLY NON-EXISTENT STEERING 
 FLOW...WITH MID-LEVEL HIGHS CENTERED TO THE EAST...AND TO THE 
 DISTANT NORTH-NORTHWEST. IT IS DIFFICULT TO TELL WHICH OF THESE 
 FEATURES IS THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM...AND IT MAY JUST BE
 THAT BETA-DRIFT IS THE PRIMARY MECHANISM AT THIS TIME...AS THE
 INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE FOR THIS PACKAGE IS 320/03 KT. THE LIGHT
 STEERING FLOW AND NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR
 THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. RIDGING IS THEN FORECAST TO TEMPORARILY
 BUILD TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONE...RESULTING IN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
 FORWARD SPEED TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ON DAYS 2 THROUGH 4. TOWARD
 THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...JIMENA WILL BEGIN TO FEEL A STRONG
 RIDGE BUILDING TO THE NORTH...AND THE FORECAST RESPONDS BY TURNING
 JIMENA TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE UPDATED OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
 VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS...BUT IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND TO THE WEST
 OF THE PREVIOUS OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS. ON DAYS 4 AND 5...THE UPDATED
 TRACK FORECAST LIES ALONG THE PREVIOUS...BUT IS INDICATING A SLOWER
 FORWARD SPEED. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST LIES VERY CLOSE TO THE TVCN
 AND GFEX CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. 
 
 THE INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO ANTICIPATE A GRADUAL BUT STEADY 
 WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...PRIMARILY DUE TO THE 
 EFFECTS OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. MODERATE SHEAR...NEAR 10 TO 15 KT...
 IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...AFTER WHICH
 TIME IT STEADILY INCREASES TO NEAR 25 KT BY DAY 3. THE FORECAST 
 TRACK ALSO TAKES JIMENA OVER GRADUALLY DECREASING WATER TEMPERATURES 
 AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THE UPDATED INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO 
 THE PREVIOUS...AND VERY CLOSE TO THE IVCN CONSENSUS...BUT CONTINUES 
 TO BE HIGHER THAN THAT INDICATED BY SHIPS GUIDANCE. 
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  03/2100Z 19.1N 144.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
  12H  04/0600Z 19.4N 144.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
  24H  04/1800Z 20.0N 144.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
  36H  05/0600Z 20.8N 145.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
  48H  05/1800Z 21.7N 145.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
  72H  06/1800Z 23.9N 146.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
  96H  07/1800Z 25.5N 148.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 120H  08/1800Z 26.0N 149.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
  
 $$
 
 FORECASTER BIRCHARD