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 412 
 WTPA44 PHFO 030904
 TCDCP4
 
 HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP132015
 1100 PM HST WED SEP 02 2015
  
 JIMENA HAD DEVELOPED A RATHER LARGE AND IRREGULAR SHAPED EYE
 ACCORDING TO INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING. ESTIMATES OF
 ENVIRONMENTAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE 8 KT FROM 240 DEGREES
 ACCORDING TO UW-CIMSS AND 5 KT FROM 275 DEGREES BASED ON THE LATEST
 SHIPS ANALYSIS. THIS MODEST WIND SHEAR COMBINED WITH SEA SURFACE
 TEMPERATURE /SST/ VALUES NEAR 28C AND AMPLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT /OHC/
 ARE SUPPORTING DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYE AT THIS TIME. THE
 OUTFLOW PATTERN ALSO CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A HEALTHY TROPICAL
 CYCLONE. THE LATEST UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE OF CURRENT INTENSITY IS
 5.4/100 KT. THE MOST RECENT SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
 ARE 4.5/77 KT FROM SAB...AND 5.0/90 KT FROM PHFO AND JTWC. SINCE THE
 OVERALL SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF JIMENA HAS IMPROVED...WE WILL
 NUDGE THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 95 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION FOR JIMENA IS 315/04 KT. JIMENA IS CURRENTLY 
 BEING STEERED SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE 
 NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE SYSTEM. JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE 
 THIS SLOW FORWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS...WITH A GRADUAL 
 TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST STARTING IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. THIS 
 SLOW NORTH-NORTHWEST MOTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL DAY 3...WITH 
 A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD MOTION DURING DAYS 3-4. THE GLOBAL 
 FORECAST MODELS INDICATE A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE 
 NORTH-NORTHEAST OF JIMENA BY DAY 5...WHICH WILL LIKELY TURN THE 
 SYSTEM TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE CURRENT TRACK IS NEAR THE 
 PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE LATEST TVCN AND GFEX 
 CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.
  
 MODEST WIND SHEAR AND GRADUALLY DECREASING VALUES OF SST AND OHC
 ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SLOW WEAKENING WILL
 OCCUR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...THE ICON...IVCN AND
 SHIPS GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW JIMENA WILL WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY
 FROM DAYS 2-5 AS VALUES OF SST LOWER AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
 INCREASES. THE LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE
 PREVIOUS.
  
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  03/0900Z 18.5N 143.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
  12H  03/1800Z 18.9N 144.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
  24H  04/0600Z 19.4N 144.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
  36H  04/1800Z 19.9N 144.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
  48H  05/0600Z 20.5N 144.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
  72H  06/0600Z 22.8N 145.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
  96H  07/0600Z 25.0N 147.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 120H  08/0600Z 26.5N 149.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER HOUSTON
  
 
 
 
 
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