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WTPA44 PHFO 030904
TCDCP4
HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP132015
1100 PM HST WED SEP 02 2015
JIMENA HAD DEVELOPED A RATHER LARGE AND IRREGULAR SHAPED EYE
ACCORDING TO INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING. ESTIMATES OF
ENVIRONMENTAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE 8 KT FROM 240 DEGREES
ACCORDING TO UW-CIMSS AND 5 KT FROM 275 DEGREES BASED ON THE LATEST
SHIPS ANALYSIS. THIS MODEST WIND SHEAR COMBINED WITH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE /SST/ VALUES NEAR 28C AND AMPLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT /OHC/
ARE SUPPORTING DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYE AT THIS TIME. THE
OUTFLOW PATTERN ALSO CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A HEALTHY TROPICAL
CYCLONE. THE LATEST UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE OF CURRENT INTENSITY IS
5.4/100 KT. THE MOST RECENT SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ARE 4.5/77 KT FROM SAB...AND 5.0/90 KT FROM PHFO AND JTWC. SINCE THE
OVERALL SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF JIMENA HAS IMPROVED...WE WILL
NUDGE THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 95 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE INITIAL MOTION FOR JIMENA IS 315/04 KT. JIMENA IS CURRENTLY
BEING STEERED SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE SYSTEM. JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THIS SLOW FORWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS...WITH A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST STARTING IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. THIS
SLOW NORTH-NORTHWEST MOTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL DAY 3...WITH
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD MOTION DURING DAYS 3-4. THE GLOBAL
FORECAST MODELS INDICATE A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF JIMENA BY DAY 5...WHICH WILL LIKELY TURN THE
SYSTEM TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE CURRENT TRACK IS NEAR THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE LATEST TVCN AND GFEX
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.
MODEST WIND SHEAR AND GRADUALLY DECREASING VALUES OF SST AND OHC
ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SLOW WEAKENING WILL
OCCUR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...THE ICON...IVCN AND
SHIPS GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW JIMENA WILL WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY
FROM DAYS 2-5 AS VALUES OF SST LOWER AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
INCREASES. THE LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE
PREVIOUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/0900Z 18.5N 143.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 18.9N 144.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 19.4N 144.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 19.9N 144.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 20.5N 144.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 22.8N 145.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 07/0600Z 25.0N 147.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 08/0600Z 26.5N 149.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON
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