698 
 WTPA44 PHFO 030257
 TCDCP4
 
 HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP132015
 500 PM HST WED SEP 02 2015
  
 SINCE THIS MORNING THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN
 AROUND HURRICANE JIMENA. AN SSMI MICROWAVE PASS AT 2357 UTC SHOWED
 AN APPARENT EYEWALL ENCIRCLING MOST OF THE CENTER...BUT THE EYE IS
 POORLY DEFINED ON VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. SUBJECTIVE
 DVORAK ANALYSES WERE UNCHANGED FROM THIS MORNING WITH JTWC AND PHFO
 ANALYZING 5.0/90KT AND SAB ANALYZING 4.5/77 KT. I HAVE KEPT THE
 INITIAL INTENSITY AT 90 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE
 NORTHWEST AT 04 KT.
  
 FORECAST REASONING HAS CHANGED LITTLE. JIMENA IS FORECAST TO
 CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWEST...STEERED BY A RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHEAST
 FROM A HIGH NEAR 41N152W. THE STEERING FLOW IS WEAK...SO THE
 FORWARD MOTION WILL REMAIN RATHER SLOW. JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO CURVE
 MORE NORTH NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...THEN MORE WEST
 NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND 48 HOURS AS THE RIDGE BUILDS NORTHEAST OF THE
 CYCLONE. THE CURRENT TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND TO
 THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
  
 VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE
 UW-CIMSS VERTICAL SHEAR PRODUCT SHOWS LOW SHEAR OF AROUND 5 KT
 FROM THE NORTHWEST...WHILE SHIPS SHOWS ONLY 2 KT OF SHEAR FROM THE
 WEST. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...SST...REMAIN FAIRLY WARM AT
 27.5 DEGREES C. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
 SLOW WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. JIMENA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
 MORE RAPIDLY AFTER 48 HOURS AS SST DROPS AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
 INCREASES.
 
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  03/0300Z 18.4N 143.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
  12H  03/1200Z 18.8N 143.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
  24H  04/0000Z 19.3N 144.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
  36H  04/1200Z 19.8N 144.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
  48H  05/0000Z 20.3N 144.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
  72H  06/0000Z 22.5N 145.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
  96H  07/0000Z 25.0N 147.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 120H  08/0000Z 27.5N 149.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER DONALDSON