516 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 021456
 TCDEP3
 HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132009
 800 AM PDT WED SEP 02 2009
 
 SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST THE UPPER-LEVEL CENTER OF
 JIMENA IS OVER LAND.  HOWEVER...EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTED
 THE VORTEX WAS TILTED WITH HEIGHT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...AND THERE
 ARE NO RECENT MICROWAVE DATA TO PINPOINT THE SURFACE CENTER.  THE
 BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT THE SURFACE CENTER HAS PASSED NEAR OR OVER
 CABO SAN LAZARO DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  THE SATELLITE
 PRESENTATION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DETERIORATE...AND BASED ON THIS
 THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 85 KT.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 345/11.  ALL GUIDANCE AGREES ON A
 CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH DECELERATION DURING THE
 NEXT 24-36 HR.  AFTER THAT TIME...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS JIMENA
 TURNING WESTWARD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AND
 INCREASING WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SHEAR IT APART.  THE NEW
 FORECAST TRACK SHOWS A LITTLE MORE WESTERLY MOTION THAN THE
 PREVIOUS TRACK...WITH JIMENA OR ITS REMNANTS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER
 THE PACIFIC WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BEFORE DISSIPATING.  THE
 GFDN...NOGAPS...AND LBAR MODELS ARE OUTLIERS IN SHOWING AN EASTWARD
 TURN...A POSSIBILITY THAT IS NOT CONSIDERED LIKELY AT THIS TIME.
 
 JIMENA SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DUE TO LAND INTERACTION...THE
 COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND
 INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST
 IS WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...TO A TROPICAL
 DEPRESSION IN ABOUT 48 HR...AND TO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 72 HR. 
 EVEN IF THE CENTER EMERGES OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF
 CALIFORNIA...THE FORECAST SHEAR SHOULD PREVENT ANY
 RE-INTENSIFICATION.
  
 INTERESTS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ARE ADVISED THAT STRONG
 WINDS WILL PRECEDE THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER BY SEVERAL HOURS...SO
 PREPARATIONS NEED TO BE COMPLETED VERY SOON.  REMEMBER NOT TO FOCUS
 ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK SINCE DANGEROUS IMPACTS EXTEND SOME
 DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER.  THE FORECAST TRACK OF JIMENA IS ALMOST
 PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND SMALL DEVIATIONS
 LEFT OR RIGHT OF THE TRACK COULD RESULT IN LARGE ERRORS IN BOTH THE
 LOCATION AND TIMING OF LANDFALL.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      02/1500Z 25.2N 112.2W    85 KT
  12HR VT     03/0000Z 26.4N 112.7W    75 KT...INLAND
  24HR VT     03/1200Z 27.4N 113.3W    50 KT...INLAND
  36HR VT     04/0000Z 27.8N 113.8W    35 KT...INLAND
  48HR VT     04/1200Z 27.8N 114.5W    30 KT...INLAND
  72HR VT     05/1200Z 27.5N 115.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     06/1200Z 27.5N 116.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 120HR VT     07/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BEVEN