881 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 011458
 TCDEP3
 HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132009
 800 AM PDT TUE SEP 01 2009
  
 MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM THE NASA TRMM AND AQUA SATELLITES...ALONG
 WITH IR IMAGERY...INDICATE THAT JIMENA IS UNDERGOING AN EYEWALL
 REPLACEMENT CYCLE.  THE SMALL EYE SEEN EARLIER IS BECOMING RAGGED
 AND CLOUD-FILLED...WHILE THE MICROWAVE DATA SHOWS AN OUTER EYEWALL
 ROUGHLY 30 N MI WIDE.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
 AIRCRAFT HAS JUST REACHED THE CENTER...REPORTING THAT THE CENTRAL
 PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 945 MB...AND THAT THE 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL
 WINDS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN THOSE MEASURED YESTERDAY.  THE
 INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 125 KT...AND THIS COULD BE
 GENEROUS.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS WOBBLING BETWEEN 325 AND 330 DEGREES AT ABOUT
 10 KT.  JIMENA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE IN A GENERAL NORTH-
 NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BETWEEN A
 MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND A MID-LEVEL
 RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...WITH ALL THE TRACK GUIDANCE IN
 AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.  THE FORECAST BECOME LESS CONFIDENT
 FROM 72 HR ON DUE TO A LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE.  THE GFDL...
 GFDN...AND NOGAPS CALL FOR JIMENA TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
 NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  THE REST
 OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE EITHER STALLS THE CYCLONE OVER CENTRAL
 BAJA CALIFORNIA OR TURNS IT WESTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC.  OVERALL...
 THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE WESTWARD...AND SO HAS
 THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  AFTER 72 HR...THE NEW TRACK COMPROMISES
 BETWEEN THE MODEL EXTREMES BY CALLING FOR A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION.
 THE NEW TRACK CALLS FOR LANDFALL ON THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
 PENINSULA IN 36-48 HR.
  
 THERE IS A CHANCE THAT JIMENA COULD INTENSIFY SOME AT THE END OF THE
 EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE IF THAT HAPPENS BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES
 COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  OTHERWISE...THE HURRICANE SHOULD
 WEAKEN OVER STEADILY COOLER WATER UNTIL LANDFALL...ALTHOUGH IT IS
 EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE UNTIL THAT TIME.  JIMENA SHOULD
 WEAKEN FASTER DURING ITS TIME OVER BAJA.  AFTER 72 HR...JIMENA
 COULD BE MOVING INTO THE WESTERLIES OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...
 UNDER STRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
 CALIFORNIA...OR OVER COLD WATERS WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA.  ALL
 OF THOSE POSSIBILITIES SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN TO A
 REMNANT LOW BY 120 HR.
  
 INTERESTS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ARE ADVISED THAT STRONG
 WINDS WILL PRECEDE THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER BY SEVERAL HOURS...SO
 PREPARATIONS NEED TO BE COMPLETED VERY SOON. REMEMBER NOT TO FOCUS
 ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK SINCE DANGEROUS IMPACTS EXTEND SOME
 DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER. THE FORECAST TRACK OF JIMENA IS ALMOST
 PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND SMALL DEVIATIONS
 LEFT OR RIGHT OF THE TRACK COULD RESULT IN LARGE ERRORS IN BOTH THE
 LOCATION AND TIMING OF LANDFALL.
 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      01/1500Z 21.0N 110.7W   125 KT
  12HR VT     02/0000Z 22.4N 111.5W   125 KT
  24HR VT     02/1200Z 24.3N 112.3W   115 KT
  36HR VT     03/0000Z 25.9N 112.9W   100 KT
  48HR VT     03/1200Z 27.1N 113.3W    70 KT...INLAND
  72HR VT     04/1200Z 28.5N 113.5W    45 KT...INLAND
  96HR VT     05/1200Z 30.0N 113.5W    30 KT...OVER WATER
 120HR VT     06/1200Z 31.5N 113.0W    20 KT...INLAND
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BEVEN