859 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 310325
 TCDEP3
 HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10...CORRECTED
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132009
 800 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2009
 
 CORRECTED FOR DISCUSSION OF WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES
 
 THE STRUCTURE OF JIMENA CONTINUES TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY A SMALL EYE
 EMBEDDED WITHIN A SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. OUTFLOW IS
 EXCELLENT IN ALL QUADRANTS...AND TOPS WITHIN THE CDO HAVE CONTINUED
 TO COOL. DVORAK CI-NUMBERS WERE 6.5 FROM TAFB AND 6.0 FROM SAB AT
 0000 UTC...AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK CI-NUMBERS HAVE BEEN NEAR 6.5 FOR
 SEVERAL HOURS. BASED ON THE INCREASING TREND IN THE SATELLITE
 ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 125 KT. CONTINUED
 STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS JIMENA WILL
 BE IN AN IDEAL ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER...IF AN
 EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE OCCURS IT WOULD LIKELY HALT ANY
 INTENSIFICATION...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. GIVEN THE LIMITED
 PREDICTABILITY OF THESE INNER-CORE CHANGES...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
 SHOWS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN INTENSITY IN THE SHORT-TERM. AROUND 48
 HOURS...INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INTERACTION
 WITH LAND SHOULD CAUSE JIMENA TO WEAKEN. THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
 TRACK...AND HOW MUCH THE CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH LAND...INTRODUCES
 ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY INTO THE INTENSITY FORECAST LATER IN THE
 PERIOD. 
  
 JIMENA HAS CONTINUED TO EXHIBIT TROCHOIDAL WOBBLES FOR THE PAST FEW
 HOURS. THE SMOOTHED INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/06...A LITTLE TO
 THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN JIMENA
 AND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N 112W WILL BE
 CRITICAL TO THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE HURRICANE. THE MID- TO
 UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST
 PERIOD...AND THE GFS...NOGAPS...GFDL...GFDN...AND HWRF SUGGEST THAT
 IT WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL JIMENA NORTHWARD TOWARD THE
 BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. ANOTHER GROUP OF MODELS...INCLUDING THE
 ECMWF...UKMET...AND CANADIAN WEAKEN THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND
 TURN JIMENA TOWARD THE WEST AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS NORTH
 OF THE CYCLONE. THE HIGHER-RESOLUTION 1800 UTC GFS PARALLEL
 ENSEMBLE MEAN SUPPORTS THE MORE EASTWARD TRACK SCENARIO...WHILE THE
 1200 UTC ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWS A MORE WESTERLY TRACK.
 HOWEVER...THERE IS LARGE SPREAD IN THE SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE FIELD
 NORTH OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN POSITION...SUGGESTING THAT A
 SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF THE MEMBERS HAVE A TRACK CLOSER TO BAJA. THE
 MULTI-MODEL TRACK CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE MORE EASTWARD
 SCENARIO...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH HAS BEEN
 SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST FOR THIS PACKAGE. 
 
 BASED ON THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE WATCH
 IS REQUIRED FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
 PENINSULA AT THIS TIME. JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO BE A VERY DANGEROUS
 HURRICANE NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE
 WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT INDICATES THAT THERE IS CURRENTLY A
 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS OCCURRING AT ANY
 INDIVIDUAL POINT LOCATION OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA SOUTH OF A LINE
 FROM LORETO TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO. 
 
 INTERESTS IN WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO AND ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AND
 SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
 JIMENA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE
 AREAS TONIGHT OR MONDAY.  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      31/0300Z 17.0N 107.2W   125 KT
  12HR VT     31/1200Z 17.8N 108.0W   130 KT
  24HR VT     01/0000Z 19.2N 109.1W   130 KT
  36HR VT     01/1200Z 21.3N 110.2W   125 KT
  48HR VT     02/0000Z 23.4N 111.0W   120 KT
  72HR VT     03/0000Z 27.0N 112.5W    65 KT...INLAND
  96HR VT     04/0000Z 28.6N 113.5W    40 KT...INLAND
 120HR VT     05/0000Z 29.0N 115.0W    25 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BRENNAN