096 
 WTNT41 KNHC 032031
 TCDAT1
  
 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112013
 500 PM AST THU OCT 03 2013
  
 JERRY LACKS SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO QUALIFY AS A
 TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND IS THEREFORE BEING DESIGNATED AS A REMNANT
 LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 30 KT...
 ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE GENEROUS.  THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE
 PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS...AND VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS
 FORECAST TO INCREASE TO NEAR 25 KT IN 48 HOURS.  REGENERATION IS
 UNLIKELY AND BASED ON A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS...THE
 SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH AFTER 48 HOURS.
 
 INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE FASTER...060/12.  POST-TROPICAL JERRY IS
 FORECAST TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A
 BROAD MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY
 SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES BETWEEN THE GFS PREDICTION AND
 THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
 THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON JERRY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
 CENTER.  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH
 SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS 
 HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  03/2100Z 31.8N  38.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  12H  04/0600Z 32.6N  36.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  24H  04/1800Z 33.7N  34.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  05/0600Z 34.8N  32.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  05/1800Z 36.0N  30.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  06/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER PASCH