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 384 
 WTNT41 KNHC 030242
 TCDAT1
  
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112013
 1100 PM AST WED OCT 02 2013
  
 DEEP CONVECTION HAS...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY...CEASED WITHIN JERRY
 THIS EVENING.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE
 CORRESPONDINGLY DROPPED...AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ANALYZED AT
 30 KT.
 
 THE INITIAL POSITION CAN BE LOCATED SOMEWHAT RELIABLY AS THE
 LOW-LEVEL CENTER CAN BE SEEN IN THE SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY NOW
 THAT THE DEEP-LAYER CLOUDINESS HAS SUBSIDED.  THE POSITION
 INDICATES A CURRENT MOTION OF 50 DEGREES AT 6 KT.  JERRY IS LOCATED
 NORTHWEST OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND SHOULD ACCELERATE TOWARD THE
 NORTHEAST OR NORTH-NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
 GETS PICKED UP BY THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.  THE TRACK MODELS
 ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND ARE CENTERED JUST SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE
 PREVIOUS CYCLE...AS IS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
 
 DEEP CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO RESUME TONIGHT DURING THE LATE
 NIGHT-EARLY MORNING DIURNAL MAXIMUM.  HOWEVER...AS THE CYCLONE
 MOVES NORTHEASTWARD...THIS WILL BRING IT OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER
 WATERS...THROUGH A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE...AND INTO STRONGER
 TROPOSPHERIC VERTICAL SHEAR.  THUS THE PROSPECTS FOR SIGNIFICANT
 REINTENSIFICATION APPEAR TO BE SLIM.  AFTER ABOUT TWO DAYS...JERRY
 WILL BE TRAVERSING 24C WATERS AND IT SHOULD LOSE DEEP CONVECTION
 PERMANENTLY AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW.  JERRY IS FORECAST TO
 DISSIPATE BY DAY FIVE...THOUGH SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE
 THAT THIS COULD OCCUR A DAY OR TWO SOONER.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST
 IS BASED UPON A BLEND OF THE HWRF AND GFDL HURRICANE MODELS AND THE
 GLOBAL MODELS...AND IT IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  03/0300Z 29.7N  42.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  03/1200Z 30.6N  40.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  04/0000Z 31.9N  38.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
  36H  04/1200Z 32.8N  35.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
  48H  05/0000Z 33.4N  33.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
  72H  06/0000Z 36.0N  29.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  07/0000Z 38.5N  25.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  08/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER LANDSEA
  
 
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