398 
 WTNT41 KNHC 021431
 TCDAT1
  
 TROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112013
 1100 AM AST WED OCT 02 2013
  
 DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH JERRY IS NOT VERY EXTENSIVE AND
 CONFINED PRIMARILY TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE ESTIMATED
 CENTER.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE STORM
 IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW...SUGGESTING THAT THE CYCLONE
 MAY NOT BE FULLY TROPICAL.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB
 CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 35 KT.  JERRY IS EXPECTED TO
 MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND EXPERIENCE INCREASING
 VERTICAL SHEAR.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS JERRY
 MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE SUCCUMBING
 TO THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT.  THE NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST IS A
 LITTLE ABOVE THE MODEL CONSENSUS BUT BELOW THE LGEM GUIDANCE.  THE
 GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT JERRY WILL DISSIPATE SOONER THAN SHOWN
 HERE...AND THIS IS CERTAINLY QUITE POSSIBLE.   
  
 CENTER FIXES ARE ABOUT WHERE THEY WERE EARLIER THIS MORNING...SO THE
 INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS STATIONARY.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO
 THE TRACK FORECAST OR REASONING.  JERRY IS CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF
 A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN THE 500-MB WESTERLIES.  A BROAD TROUGH IS
 APPROACHING THE AREA...AND THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO BEGIN
 MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
 SO.  LATER ON...THE FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE TROUGH SHOULD
 CARRY JERRY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED.  THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS QUITE CLOSE TO THAT FROM THE LATEST RUN
 OF THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  02/1500Z 28.2N  43.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  03/0000Z 29.1N  43.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  03/1200Z 30.3N  41.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  04/0000Z 31.4N  39.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
  48H  04/1200Z 32.4N  37.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
  72H  05/1200Z 34.7N  31.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
  96H  06/1200Z 37.5N  26.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  07/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER PASCH