002 
 WTNT41 KNHC 232035
 TCDAT1
 SUBTROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112007
 500 PM EDT SUN SEP 23 2007
  
 JERRY IS BEGINNING TO TAKE ON A MORE TROPICAL APPEARANCE ON VISIBLE
 SATELLITE IMAGES.  LOW CLOUD LINES ARE WRAPPING MORE TIGHTLY AROUND
 THE CENTER AND THERE IS SOME DEEP CONVECTION NOT TOO FAR TO THE
 NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  AMSU DATA SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE HAS
 ALREADY ACQUIRED A SHALLOW TO MODERATE DEPTH WARM CORE.  SATELLITE
 CLASSIFICATIONS REMAIN SUBTROPICAL T2.5 AND THE OVERALL AMOUNT OF
 DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED...SO THE CYCLONE WILL STILL BE
 DESIGNATED AS A 35-KT SUBTROPICAL STORM FOR THIS ADVISORY.  JERRY
 WILL PROBABLY MAKE THE TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
 NEXT 12 HOURS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER THE
 INTENSIFICATION PROCESS WILL SOON BE CURTAILED BY COOLING SSTS
 AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  A LARGE AND POWERFUL
 EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING OFF OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IS
 FORECAST TO ABSORB JERRY IN 36-48 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.
 
 JERRY HAS BEGUN TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD...360/5.  AS THE STEERING
 FLOW INCREASES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
 DIGGING OFF OF SOUTHEASTERN CANADA...JERRY SHOULD ACCELERATE NORTH-
 NORTHEASTWARD BEFORE THE LARGER EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM CATCHES UP TO
 THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND ABSORBS IT.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
 IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
 CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      23/2100Z 36.8N  46.3W    35 KT
  12HR VT     24/0600Z 38.5N  45.1W    40 KT...TROPICAL
  24HR VT     24/1800Z 41.7N  42.3W    45 KT...TROPICAL
  36HR VT     25/0600Z 47.0N  38.5W    45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
  48HR VT     25/1800Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
  
 $$
 FORECASTER PASCH