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 801 
 WTNT41 KNHC 252032
 TCDAT1
 HURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  49
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 5 PM EDT SAT SEP 25 2004
  
 THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN. JEANE
 CONTINUES TO HAVE A WELL DEFINED EYE SURROUNDED BY A CONVECTIVE
 BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM. STRONGEST WIND CONTINUES TO BE THE
 113 KNOTS REPORTED BY A RECON EARLIER TODAY. A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF
 950 MB WAS JUST REPORTED BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE. INITIAL
 INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 100 KNOTS BUT MAY NEED TO BE UPDATED WHEN A
 NEW DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE BECOME AVAILABLE. ADDITIONAL
 STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AND CATEGORY FOUR INTENSITY AT LANDFALL
 IN FLORIDA CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN
 AFTER LANDFALL. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS SHIPS INLAND DECAY
 MODEL....DSHIPS. 
 
 THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN WOBBLING BETWEEN THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST
 AT 12 KNOTS DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  HOWEVER...JEANNE SHOULD
 BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWEST AROUND
 THE HIGH TONIGHT. THIS MOTION WOULD BRING THE CORE OF JEANNE TO THE
 EAST COAST OF FLORIDA WITHIN THE WARNING AROUND MIDNIGHT.
 THEREAFTER...THE HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE INLAND ACROSS THE
 FLORIDA PENINSULA IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. THE
 PORTION OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FROM NOW TO LANDFALL AND OVER
 FLORIDA CONTINUES TO BE VERY CLOSE TO THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS
 AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.
 
 IN FIVE DAYS...JEANNE IS EXPECTED TO BE A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL STORM
 IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC. 
  
 FORECASTER AVILA
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      25/2100Z 27.1N  78.8W   100 KT
  12HR VT     26/0600Z 27.7N  80.6W   110 KT
  24HR VT     26/1800Z 28.7N  82.3W    55 KT...INLAND
  36HR VT     27/0600Z 30.2N  83.3W    30 KT...INLAND
  48HR VT     27/1800Z 32.5N  83.0W    25 KT...INLAND
  72HR VT     28/1800Z 37.5N  76.0W    25 KT...INLAND
  96HR VT     29/1800Z 42.5N  65.0W    30 KT...OVER WATER
 120HR VT     30/1800Z 46.5N  52.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  
  
 $$
 
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