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 886 
 WTNT41 KNHC 250858
 TCDAT1
 HURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  47
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 5 AM EDT SAT SEP 25 2004
  
 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
 HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT JEANNE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A 40 NM
 WIDE EYE.  THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DROPPED TO 958 MB...AND THE
 AIRCRAFT REPORTED 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF ABOUT 100 KT.  THIS
 IS THE BASIS FOR THE INITIAL 90 KT INTENSITY.  JEANNE IS CURRENTLY
 GENERATING VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS SOUTH OF THE EYE...BUT A DRY SLOT
 IS APPARENT NORTH OF THE EYE.  CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS CURRENTLY FAIR TO
 GOOD IN ALL DIRECTIONS.  THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED 110 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL
 WINDS AT 850 MB IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT...APPARENTLY DUE TO AN
 EYEWALL MESOVORTEX AND THE ASSOCIATED INTENSE CONVECTION.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION WOBBLES BETWEEN 270/12 AND 275/12.  JEANNE
 REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGE...WHICH
 LARGE-SCALE MODELS NOW FORECAST TO PERSIST LONG ENOUGH TO DRIVE
 JEANNE INTO SOUTHEASTERN OR EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA IN ABOUT 24 HR. 
 BEYOND THAT TIME...THE RIDGE SHOULD WEAKEN AND MOVE FAR ENOUGH TO
 THE EAST TO ALLOW JEANNE TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD...FOLLOWED BY
 EVENTUAL RECURVATURE INTO THE WESTERLIES.  ALL GUIDANCE AGREES ON
 THIS SCENARIO AND HAS SHOWN A WESTWARD SHIFT SINCE THE PREVIOUS
 PACKAGE...BUT THERE REMAIN DIFFERENCES ON WHEN AND WHERE JEANNE
 WILL TURN.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES THE CURRENT MOTION
 UNTIL LANDFALL IN FLORIDA IN 24 HR...THEN TURNS THE CYCLONE
 NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD UP THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
 NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  THE FORECAST
 TRACK IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST 24
 HR...AND JUST EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS FROM 24-72 HR.  IT HAS
 BEEN SHIFTED WESTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...MOST NOTABLY OVER
 THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
 
 GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS THAT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE
 FOR JEANNE TO STRENGTHEN UNTIL LANDFALL.  THEREFORE...THE MAIN
 RESTRAINING FACTORS FOR DEVELOPMENT ARE THE CURRENT LARGE EYE...AND
 THE ABUNDANT DRY AIR SURROUNDING THE HURRICANE.  SHIPS AND THE GFDL
 BOTH TAKE JEANNE TO 100 KT BY LANDFALL.  GIVEN THE CURRENT
 TRENDS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL GO A LITTLE HIGHER AND CALL
 FOR 105 KT.  IT WOULD NOT BE A SURPRISE TO SEE JEANNE GET STRONGER
 THAN THAT...AND REACHING CATEGORY FOUR STATUS IS NOT OUT OF THE
 QUESTION.  JEANNE SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL...BECOMING
 A DEPRESSION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND EVENTUALLY
 BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC.
 
 FORECASTER BEVEN
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      25/0900Z 26.5N  76.2W    90 KT
  12HR VT     25/1800Z 26.7N  78.2W   100 KT
  24HR VT     26/0600Z 27.3N  80.3W   105 KT...INLAND
  36HR VT     26/1800Z 28.6N  81.9W    75 KT...INLAND
  48HR VT     27/0600Z 30.4N  82.5W    45 KT...INLAND
  72HR VT     28/0600Z 34.0N  80.5W    30 KT...INLAND
  96HR VT     29/0600Z 38.5N  72.5W    30 KT...OVER WATER
 120HR VT     30/0600Z 43.0N  62.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  
  
 $$
 
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