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 946 
 WTNT41 KNHC 240251
 TCDAT1
 HURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  42
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 11 PM EDT THU SEP 23 2004
  
 ALTHOUGH THE EYE IS QUITE DISTINCT AND THERE IS GOOD ORGANIZATION...
 THE CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED. THIS WAS PROBABLY CAUSED BY THE FACT
 THAT JEANNE HAS BEEN MEANDERING FOR A DAY OR SO...RESULTING IN
 UPWELLING AND COOLER WATERS. THE WINDS COULD BE LOWERED AT THIS
 TIME BUT I RATHER WAIT FOR THE RECON WHICH WILL CHECK THE INTENSITY
 EARLY FRIDAY.  SO FOR NOW THE WINDS REMAIN AT 90 KNOTS. THE
 UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE BETWEEN THE
 BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA...AND AS SOON AS JEANNE MOVES WESTWARD OVER
 THIS AREA...IT WILL ENCOUNTER WARMER WATERS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS
 THEN ANTICIPATED.    
 
 THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN AND IT APPEARS THAT
 THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE HURRICANE HAS
 BEGUN TO FORCE JEANNE WESTWARD OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KNOTS. AS THE
 HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD...THE HURRICANE SHOULD INCREASE IN FORWARD
 SPEED AND SHOULD BE VERY NEAR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA IN ABOUT 48
 HOURS. BY THEN...THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD AND THE
 HURRICANE WILL TURN GRADUALLY TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND THE HIGH.
 THIS TURN COULD EITHER OCCUR OVER THE PENINSULA OR ALONG THE EAST
 COAST. NEVERTHERLESS...JEANNE IS A THREAT TO FLORIDA. THIS IS IN
 AGREEMENT WITH GLOBAL MODELS AND THE CONSENSUS...WHICH CONSISTENTLY
 HAVE BEEN BRINGING THE HURRICANE OVER OR NEAR FLORIDA FOR THE PAST
 FEW RUNS.
 
 FORECASTER AVILA
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      24/0300Z 26.1N  70.8W    90 KT
  12HR VT     24/1200Z 26.1N  72.2W    95 KT
  24HR VT     25/0000Z 26.1N  74.5W   100 KT
  36HR VT     25/1200Z 26.2N  77.0W   105 KT
  48HR VT     26/0000Z 26.5N  79.0W   105 KT
  72HR VT     27/0000Z 29.0N  81.0W    75 KT...INLAND
  96HR VT     28/0000Z 33.0N  80.5W    45 KT...INLAND
 120HR VT     29/0000Z 38.0N  73.0W    35 KT...OVER WATER
  
  
 $$
 
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