016 
 WTNT41 KNHC 220227
 TCDAT1
 HURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  34
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 11 PM EDT TUE SEP 21 2004
  
 MULTI-CHANNEL IR IMAGES CLEARLY SHOWS THE EYE OF JEANNE AND ALTHOUGH
 THE CLOUD PATTERN APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...
 T-NUMBERS REMAIN AT 4.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. MAXIMUM WINDS AREA
 KEPT AT 80 KNOTS BUT A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL CHECK THE
 INTENSITY OF JEANNE IN A FEW HOURS. ACCORDING TO THE GLOBAL
 MODELS...THE SHEAR OVER JEAN IS CURRENTLY THE STRONGEST AND
 UNANIMOUSLY ALL MODELS DEVELOP AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER
 JEANNE DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THIS PATTERN WOULD PROVIDE A
 LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR JEANE TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY
 DURING THAT PERIOD...AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
  
 THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN DRIFTING SOUTHWARD OR ABOUT 175 DEGREES AT 3
 KNOTS. STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK SO...JEANNE
 WILL LIKELY MEANDER FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...A
 RATHER LARGE MID-LEVEL ANTICYLONE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE
 EASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS FEATURE WILL
 PROBABLY FORCE JEANNE TO MOVE ON A SLOW WEST-TO WEST-NORTHWEST
 TRACK. JEANNE SHOULD THEN TURN NORTHWARD NOT TOO FAR FROM THE U.S
 EAST COAST AS THE HIGH CONTINUES EASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
 FOLLOWS THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS RATHER CLOSELY. THERE IS A LITTLE
 MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST NOW THAT THE GFS HAS JOINED THE
 REST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL IN MOVING JEAN WEST AND
 NORTHWESTWARD.  THE LATEST SCENARIO IS A LITTLE MORE OF A THREAT
 FOR THE SOUTHEAST U.S COAST BUT IT IS TOO SOON TO TELL.
  
 FORECASTER AVILA
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      22/0300Z 27.0N  68.7W    80 KT
  12HR VT     22/1200Z 26.8N  68.9W    80 KT
  24HR VT     23/0000Z 26.5N  69.0W    80 KT
  36HR VT     23/1200Z 26.5N  69.5W    85 KT
  48HR VT     24/0000Z 26.6N  70.5W    85 KT
  72HR VT     25/0000Z 27.5N  73.0W    85 KT
  96HR VT     26/0000Z 29.5N  75.5W    70 KT
 120HR VT     27/0000Z 32.1N  76.0W    60 KT
  
  
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