345 
 WTNT21 KNHC 140837
 TCMAT1
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112004
 0900Z TUE SEP 14 2004
  
 AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR SABA...ST.
 EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTEN HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM
 WARNING.
  
 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...THE U.S.
 VIRGIN ISLANDS...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTEN.
  
 A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN
 ISLANDS.
  
 TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD ALSO AFFECT THE REMAINDER OF THE
 NORTHEN LESSER ANTILLES TO THE NORTH OF GUADELOUPE.
  
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N  62.2W AT 14/0900Z
 POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
  
 PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT  10 KT
  
 ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
 WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
 MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
  
 REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N  62.2W AT 14/0900Z
 AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N  61.8W
  
 FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 17.4N  63.6W
 MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 34 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 18.5N  65.3W
 MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 34 KT... 35NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 19.5N  67.1W
 MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
 34 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW  50NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 20.4N  68.8W
 MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
 34 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 21.6N  70.7W
 MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 50 KT... 25NE  25SE  15SW  25NW.
 34 KT... 70NE  70SE  30SW  70NW.
  
 EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
 ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 23.0N  72.0W
 MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 25.0N  73.4W
 MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
  
 REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N  62.2W
  
 NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z
  
 FORECASTER JARVINEN
  
  
 $$