701 
 WTNT21 KNHC 132041
 TCMAT1
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112004
 2100Z MON SEP 13 2004
  
 AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
 PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
  
 AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
 WATCH FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
  
 AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS ISSUED
 A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MARTEEN.
  
 TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD ALSO AFFECT THE REMAINDER OF THE
 NORTHEN LESSER ANTILLES TO THE NORTH OF GUADELOUPE.
  
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N  60.4W AT 13/2100Z
 POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
  
 PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  10 KT
  
 ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
 WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
 MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
  
 REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N  60.4W AT 13/2100Z
 AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N  59.9W
  
 FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 16.7N  62.1W
 MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
  
 FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 17.5N  64.2W
 MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 34 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 18.4N  66.1W
 MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 34 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 19.4N  68.0W
 MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
 34 KT... 50NE  50SE  20SW  50NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 21.4N  71.3W
 MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 50 KT... 25NE  25SE  15SW  25NW.
 34 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
  
 EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
 ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 23.0N  73.0W
 MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 24.0N  74.5W
 MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
  
 REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N  60.4W
  
 NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z
  
 FORECASTER STEWART
  
  
 $$