214 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 090844
 TCDEP1
 
 TROPICAL STORM JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112016
 300 AM MDT TUE AUG 09 2016
 
 Deep convection associated with Javier has dissipated overnight and
 the cyclone now consists of a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds.
 It has been very difficult to locate the center overnight, but
 satellite and surface observations suggest that it is located near
 or over the southern Baja California peninsula.  Dvorak satellite
 intensity estimates have decreased and a blend of the various T-
 and CI-numbers yield an initial intensity of 40 kt.  An automated
 Mexican weather observing site near Cabo Pulmo on the southeastern
 portion of Baja California has reported tropical storm force wind
 gusts during the past few hours.
 
 The small tropical cyclone appears to have succumb to the
 effects of land interaction, northeasterly shear, and dry mid-level
 air sooner than anticipated.  As a result, the NHC intensity
 forecast has been adjusted lower than the previous advisory and now
 calls for additional weakening as Javier interacts with land and
 moves into a more stable environment.  Javier is forecast to weaken
 to a tropical depression later today, and become a remnant low on
 Wednesday, however this could occur much earlier if organized
 deep convection does not redevelop soon.
 
 The initial motion estimate is 315/6 kt.  Javier is forecast to
 continue moving northwestward during the next day or so around the
 southwestern portion of a mid-level ridge over the south-central
 United States.  The track guidance is in relatively good agreement
 and the NHC forecast is near the latest multi-model consensus.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  09/0900Z 23.3N 110.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  09/1800Z 24.3N 111.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  10/0600Z 25.6N 112.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
  36H  10/1800Z 26.6N 113.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  11/0600Z 27.2N 113.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  12/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brown