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 833 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 080300
 TCDEP1
 
 TROPICAL STORM JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112016
 900 PM MDT SUN AUG 07 2016
 
 Although cloud tops have warmed some since the previous advisory,
 the overall convective cloud pattern of the cyclone has improved and
 passive microwave imagery indicate that the internal structure has
 also improved. The intensity has been increased to 45 kt based on
 consensus T3.0/45 kt satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB, and a
 T3.2/49 kt objective estimate from UW-CIMSS ADT.
 
 Microwave fixes indicate that the initial motion estimate is now
 310/11 kt.  Javier is forecast to move along the southwestern
 periphery of a deep-layer ridge centered near Texas, with the
 cyclone passing very near the west coast of the Baja California
 peninsula in 24-72 hours. The NHC model guidance is in good
 agreement on this track scenario, and the official forecast track
 closely follows the consensus model TVCN.
 
 A 0121Z SSMI/S image indicated that Javier appears to be developing
 a small mid-level eye feature. Given the compact inner-core
 structure of the cyclone, along with low shear of 5-8 kt and SSTs
 of at least 29C along the forecast track, at least steady
 strengthening seems reasonable for the next 36 hours or so. The
 official intensity forecast is slightly above the available guidance
 and closely follows the trend of the Decay-SHIPS model.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  08/0300Z 20.6N 107.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  08/1200Z 21.4N 108.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
  24H  09/0000Z 22.2N 109.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
  36H  09/1200Z 23.1N 110.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
  48H  10/0000Z 24.5N 111.7W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
  72H  11/0000Z 26.5N 113.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER
  96H  12/0000Z 28.9N 114.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  13/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Stewart
 
 
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