475
WTPZ21 KNHC 071432
TCMEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112016
1500 UTC SUN AUG 07 2016
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ
SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO SANTA FE...INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 105.0W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 105.0W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 104.6W
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 19.5N 106.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 20.7N 108.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 20NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 21.7N 109.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 22.8N 110.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 25.2N 112.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 27.5N 113.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 105.0W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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