562 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 182033
 TCDEP3
 TROPICAL STORM JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER  33
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 2 PM PDT SAT SEP 18 2004
  
 JAVIER IS DEGENERATING INTO A LOW CLOUD SWIRL WITH NO DEEP
 CONVECTION.  AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS SUGGESTED MAXIMUM WINDS OF
 ABOUT 40 KT AND IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE CYCLONE IS CONTINUING TO
 WEAKEN.  IN ADDITION SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE PLUMMETING AS FAST AS
 THE DVORAK RULES ALLOW SINCE THERE CONTINUES TO BE NO DEEP
 CONVECTION.  THE INTENSITY IS SET TO 35 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE
 QUIKSCAT AND SATELLITE ESTIMATES.  
 
 THE STORM HAS MADE THE EXPECTED TURN TO THE NORTH AND IS NOW
 ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING 350/7.  THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS THAT
 MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER IN ACCELERATING JAVIER INTO THE
 SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS THIS
 SHIFT.  THE GFS WEAKENS THE CYCLONE BELOW TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY
 BEFORE LANDFALL... A SCENARIO WHICH COULD HAPPEN IF THE MOTION
 STAYS SLOW AND CONVECTION DOES NOT RETURN THIS EVENING.  
 
 HIGH-RESOLUTION SST ANALYSES FROM NCEP SHOW THAT JAVIER IS
 PARALLELING THE 26C ISOTHERM.  ALTHOUGH SHEAR IS INCREASING.... IT
 IS POSSIBLE THAT ANOTHER BURST OF CONVECTION COULD FIRE TONIGHT...
 KEEPING JAVIER NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AT LANDFALL.  THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST GOES WITH THIS CONSERVATIVE SCENARIO ALTHOUGH IT
 IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT THE STORM COULD WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION
 BEFORE LANDFALL.  REGARDLESS OF INTENSITY...JAVIER'S MOISTURE
 SHOULD ENHANCE HEAVY RAINS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
 TOMORROW.
  
 FORECASTER BLAKE/LAWRENCE
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      18/2100Z 24.4N 113.5W    35 KT
  12HR VT     19/0600Z 25.9N 113.6W    35 KT
  24HR VT     19/1800Z 28.7N 113.0W    30 KT...OVER SEA OF CORTEZ
  36HR VT     20/0600Z 31.5N 112.4W    25 KT...INLAND AND DISSIPATING
  48HR VT     20/1800Z 34.5N 111.5W    20 KT...INLAND AND DISSIPATING
  72HR VT     21/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
  
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