885 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 162036
 TCDEP3
 HURRICANE JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 2 PM PDT THU SEP 16 2004
  
 VISIBLE ANIMATION SUGGESTS THAT THE 20 NM EYE IS BECOMING
 CLOUD-FILLED. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL INDICATES WELL DEVELOPED
 OUTFLOW CHANNELS OVER THE NORTH AND SOUTH QUADRANTS. DVORAK
 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 102 KT FROM SAB
 AND AFWA...AND 90 KT FROM TAFB. ENHANCED BD INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS
 WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE WEST
 QUADRANT...AND THE DATA-T NUMBERS ARE DOWN TO 77 KT AND 90 KT.
 THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE DECREASED SLIGHTLY TO 95
 KT...DESPITE THE IMPRESSIVE VISIBLE SATELLITE PRESENTATION. COOLER
 SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS
 EXPECTED TO CAUSE JAVIER TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY BEYOND THE 48
 HOUR PERIOD. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
 PACKAGE AND FOLLOWS THE SHIPS WHICH DECREASES JAVIER TO A 20 KT
 REMNANT LOW BY DAY 5.
  
 INITIAL MOTION IS 320/5 KT. AS HURRICANE IVAN CONTINUES ON A
 NORTHWARD DRIFT OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES...A BUILDING
 MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WEST OVER MEXICO SHOULD INFLUENCE A
 GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL
 INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. AROUND THE 72 HOUR PERIOD...A REDUCTION
 IN SPEED AND A TURN TO THE NORTH IS FORECAST IN RESPONSE TO AN
 APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST. BEYOND
 DAY 3...JAVIER SHOULD SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN
 PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND ULTIMATELY...WEAKEN TO A REMNANT
 LOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
 IS BASED OFF OF THE CONU CONSENSUS.
  
 FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      16/2100Z 20.1N 111.2W    95 KT
  12HR VT     17/0600Z 20.9N 111.9W    90 KT
  24HR VT     17/1800Z 22.0N 112.9W    85 KT
  36HR VT     18/0600Z 23.2N 113.9W    80 KT
  48HR VT     18/1800Z 24.7N 114.7W    70 KT
  72HR VT     19/1800Z 28.0N 115.5W    45 KT
  96HR VT     20/1800Z 29.5N 115.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 120HR VT     21/1800Z 31.5N 113.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW 
  
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