734 
 WTPZ23 KNHC 150857
 TCMEP3
 HURRICANE JAVIER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132004
 0900Z WED SEP 15 2004
  
 INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
 SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JAVIER.
  
 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 108.3W AT 15/0900Z
 POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
  
 PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT   4 KT
  
 ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  936 MB
 EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 155 KT.
 64 KT....... 45NE  45SE  45SW  45NW.
 50 KT....... 70NE  60SE  70SW  70NW.
 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 12 FT SEAS..160NE 160SE 160SW 160NW.
 WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
 MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
  
 REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 108.3W AT 15/0900Z
 AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 108.2W
  
 FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.5N 108.7W
 MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
 64 KT... 45NE  45SE  45SW  45NW.
 50 KT... 70NE  60SE  70SW  70NW.
 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 19.6N 109.5W
 MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
 64 KT... 45NE  45SE  45SW  45NW.
 50 KT... 70NE  60SE  70SW  70NW.
 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 20.9N 110.5W
 MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
 64 KT... 45NE  45SE  45SW  45NW.
 50 KT... 70NE  60SE  70SW  70NW.
 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 22.0N 111.7W
 MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
 50 KT... 60NE  50SE  60SW  60NW.
 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 24.0N 113.6W
 MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
 50 KT... 60NE  50SE  60SW  60NW.
 34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
  
 EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
 ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 25.5N 115.0W
 MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 27.5N 115.5W
 MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
  
 REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 108.3W
  
 NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z
  
 FORECASTER SISKO/AVILA
  
  
 $$