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 101 
 WTPZ23 KNHC 142048
 TCMEP3
 HURRICANE JAVIER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132004
 2100Z TUE SEP 14 2004
  
 INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
 SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JAVIER.
  
 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 107.8W AT 14/2100Z
 POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
  
 PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT   4 KT
  
 ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  936 MB
 EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 155 KT.
 64 KT....... 55NE  55SE  55SW  55NW.
 50 KT....... 80NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
 34 KT.......110NE 110SE 110SW 110NW.
 12 FT SEAS..160NE 160SE 160SW 160NW.
 WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
 MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
  
 REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 107.8W AT 14/2100Z
 AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 107.7W
  
 FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 17.7N 108.1W
 MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
 64 KT... 55NE  55SE  55SW  55NW.
 50 KT... 80NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
 34 KT...110NE 110SE 110SW 110NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.5N 108.8W
 MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
 64 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 50 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 19.2N 109.5W
 MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
 64 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 50 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 20.0N 110.5W
 MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
 50 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 21.5N 112.5W
 MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
 50 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
  
 EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
 ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 23.0N 114.5W
 MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 26.0N 116.5W
 MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
  
 REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 107.8W
  
 NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z
  
 FORECASTER BEVEN
  
  
 $$
 
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