741 
 WTPZ23 KNHC 141436
 TCMEP3
 HURRICANE JAVIER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132004
 1500Z TUE SEP 14 2004
  
 INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
 SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JAVIER.
  
 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 107.7W AT 14/1500Z
 POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
  
 PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   6 KT
  
 ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  940 MB
 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
 64 KT....... 55NE  55SE  55SW  55NW.
 50 KT....... 80NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
 34 KT.......110NE 110SE 110SW 110NW.
 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.
 WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
 MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
  
 REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 107.7W AT 14/1500Z
 AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 107.5W
  
 FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.3N 108.1W
 MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
 64 KT... 55NE  55SE  55SW  55NW.
 50 KT... 80NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
 34 KT...110NE 110SE 110SW 110NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 18.0N 108.7W
 MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
 64 KT... 55NE  55SE  55SW  55NW.
 50 KT... 80NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
 34 KT...110NE 110SE 110SW 110NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.8N 109.4W
 MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
 64 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 50 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 19.6N 110.3W
 MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
 50 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 21.5N 112.5W
 MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
 50 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
  
 EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
 ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 23.0N 114.5W
 MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 25.0N 117.0W
 MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
  
 REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 107.7W
  
 NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z
  
 FORECASTER BEVEN
  
  
 $$