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 743 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 141436
 TCDEP3
 HURRICANE JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 8 AM PDT TUE SEP 14 2004
  
 JAVIER APPEARS TO HAVE PEAKED IN INTENSITY FOR THE MOMENT.  WHILE
 CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED NEAR THE CENTER OVER THE PAST 6 HR...THE EYE
 HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT...AND A 0850Z AQUA OVERPASS SUGGESTS A
 CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE IS IN PROGRESS.  SATELLITE INTENSITY
 ESTIMATES ARE 140 KT FROM AFWA AND 127 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB.  THE
 INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 120 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/6.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS ANALYZE A WEAK
 MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND FORECAST THIS TO
 STRENGTHEN WITH TIME AS A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
 MOVES EASTWARD AND IS REPLACED BY A SECOND TROUGH OFF THE U. S.
 WEST COAST.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW JAVIER TO CONTINUE ON A SLOW TRACK
 TOWARD THE NORTHWEST THROUGH AT LEAST 96 HR.  MOST GUIDANCE AGREES
 ON THIS SCENARIO...EXCEPT FOR THE GFS WHICH HAS A MUCH STRONGER
 RIDGE THAN THE OTHER MODELS AND TURNS JAVIER MORE TOWARD THE WEST. 
 THAT SOLUTION IS DISCOUNTED FOR THE MOMENT...WITH THE FORECAST
 TRACK BEING DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE ENVELOPE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
 DYNAMICAL MODELS.  NOTE THAT WHILE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS JAVIER WEST
 OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT COULD BRING THE CENTER
 MUCH CLOSER TO THE PENINSULA.
  
 JAVIER HAS GOOD OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTION EXCEPT TO THE EAST...AND
 THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS LARGE-SCALE FACTORS TO KEEP IT FROM
 RE-INTENSIFYING.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE PREMISE
 THAT THE HURRICANE WILL RE-INTENSIFY AS IT FINISHES THE CONCENTRIC
 EYEWALL CYCLE.  AT ABOUT 72 HR...JAVIER WILL MOVE OVER GRADUALLY
 COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING. 
 THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AND IS
 MUCH STRONGER THAN EITHER SHIPS OF THE GFDL.
  
 FORECASTER BEVEN
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      14/1500Z 16.8N 107.7W   120 KT
  12HR VT     15/0000Z 17.3N 108.1W   125 KT
  24HR VT     15/1200Z 18.0N 108.7W   135 KT
  36HR VT     16/0000Z 18.8N 109.4W   130 KT
  48HR VT     16/1200Z 19.6N 110.3W   125 KT
  72HR VT     17/1200Z 21.5N 112.5W   115 KT
  96HR VT     18/1200Z 23.0N 114.5W    85 KT
 120HR VT     19/1200Z 25.0N 117.0W    55 KT
  
  
 $$
 
 
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