580 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 132024
 TCDEP3
 HURRICANE JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 2 PM PDT MON SEP 13 2004
  
 DVORAK NUMBERS CONTINUE TO INCREASE. INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB
 AND AFWA WERE 115 KT AND SAB CAME IN WITH 127 KT. LATEST RAW ODT
 ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS CORRESPOND TO ABOUT 115 KT. THE ADVISORY
 INTENSITY AGAIN BLENDS THESE NUMBERS TO GET 120 KT.  MICROWAVE DATA
 SUGGESTS THAT A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL MAY BE FORMING. IF THIS IS THE
 CASE...THEN THE INTENSIFICATION TREND SHOULD SLOW SOON.  JAVIER
 REMAINS SOUTH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE
 SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA...RESULTING IN SOME MODEST EASTERLY
 SHEAR OVER THE HURRICANE.  BY ALL ACCOUNTS...THE SHEAR SHOULD
 REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AND WITH WARM WATER BELOW...I SEE
 NO REASON WHY THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN STEADILY AS INDICATED BY THE
 GFDL AFTER 24 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS JAVIER AS A MAJOR
 HURRICANE THROUGH 96 HOURS...WHEN IT WILL BE APPROACHING COOLER
 WATERS.  EYEWALL CYCLES COULD...OF COURSE...CAUSE FLUCTUATIONS IN
 INTENSITY DURING THIS TIME.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/8...ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE.  THERE HAVE
 BEEN ONLY MODEST CHANGES TO THE SYNOPTIC REASONING AND FORECAST
 TRACK. THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA HAS ONLY A WEAK
 STEERING REFLECTION IN THE MID-LEVELS...AND THIS COULD ALLOW A
 SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHERLY TRACK OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
 THEREAFTER...RIDGING INCREASES OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AS THE
 UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES LIFTS OUT. IT IS
 LIKELY THAT THIS RIDGING WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO TURN JAVIER'S TRACK
 BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT AND KEEP JAVIER WEST OF THE BAJA
 CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO SOON TO RULE OUT AN
 IMPACT THERE.  MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS LARGELY SPLIT INTO TWO MAIN
 OPTIONS AT THIS TIME.  THE GFDL...UKMET...AND NOGAPS CONTINUE TO
 TAKE JAVIER SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AGAIN
 FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN FAVORING THIS SCENARIO.
 ALTERNATIVELY...THE GFS IS EVEN SLOWER AND MORE WESTWARD.
  
 FORECASTER FRANKLIN
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      13/2100Z 15.5N 106.3W   120 KT
  12HR VT     14/0600Z 16.2N 107.1W   125 KT
  24HR VT     14/1800Z 17.0N 107.7W   115 KT
  36HR VT     15/0600Z 17.8N 108.2W   115 KT
  48HR VT     15/1800Z 18.6N 109.0W   115 KT
  72HR VT     16/1800Z 20.0N 110.5W   115 KT
  96HR VT     17/1800Z 22.0N 112.5W   100 KT
 120HR VT     18/1800Z 24.0N 114.5W    80 KT
  
  
 $$