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 171 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 131432
 TCDEP3
 HURRICANE JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 8 AM PDT MON SEP 13 2004
  
 JAVIER CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...AS INDICATED BY THE APPEARANCE OF A
 CLEAR EYE EMBEDDED IN DEEP CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN
 -80C. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM AFWA...TAFB...AND SAB ARE
 90...102...AND 115 KT...RESPECTIVELY...AND THE 1330Z ODT FROM
 UW/CIMSS GIVES ABOUT 95 KT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY BLENDS THESE
 ESTIMATES AND IS INCREASED TO 105 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. JAVIER IS
 SOUTH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF
 OF CALIFORNIA...RESULTING IN SOME EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE
 HURRICANE. THIS SHEAR WOULD SEEM TO BE THE PRIMARY FACTOR LIMITING
 FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AS JAVIER WILL REMAIN OVER VERY WARM WATER
 THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFDL CALLS FOR IMMEDIATE
 WEAKENING...AND THE SHIPS GUIDANCE DOES SO AFTER 12 HOURS OF
 ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
 FLOW SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR COULD WEAKEN A BIT OVER THE NEXT
 COUPLE OF DAYS AND SO I AM RELUCTANT TO FOLLOW THE WEAKENING TRENDS
 CALLED FOR BY THIS GUIDANCE. INSTEAD...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL
 CALL FOR A ROUGHLY STEADY STATE HURRICANE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/9.  THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE GULF OF
 CALIFORNIA HAS A WEAK STEERING REFLECTION IN THE MID-LEVELS.  OVER
 THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...RIDGING INCREASES OVER NORTHWESTERN
 MEXICO AS THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES
 LIFTS OUT.  IT IS LIKELY THAT THIS RIDGING WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
 KEEP JAVIER WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ALTHOUGH AN
 IMPACT THERE CANNOT YET BE RULED OUT.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPLIT INTO
 TWO MAIN OPTIONS AT THIS TIME.  THE GFDL...UKMET...AND NOGAPS TAKE
 JAVIER SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE
 PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN FAVORING THIS SCENARIO.  AN ALTERNATIVE
 SOLUTION IS OFFERED BY THE GFS...WHICH MAINTAINS THE 500 MB HIGH
 FARTHER SOUTH AND CONSEQUENTLY TAKES JAVIER TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.  
 
 FORECASTER FRANKLIN
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      13/1500Z 15.0N 105.7W   105 KT
  12HR VT     14/0000Z 15.8N 106.7W   115 KT
  24HR VT     14/1200Z 16.6N 107.6W   115 KT
  36HR VT     15/0000Z 17.3N 108.3W   115 KT
  48HR VT     15/1200Z 18.0N 109.0W   115 KT
  72HR VT     16/1200Z 20.0N 110.5W   115 KT
  96HR VT     17/1200Z 21.5N 112.0W   100 KT
 120HR VT     18/1200Z 23.0N 113.5W    90 KT
  
  
 $$
 
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