009 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 130232
 TCDEP3
 HURRICANE JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 8 PM PDT SUN SEP 12 2004
  
 THE LAST VISIBLE PICTURES FOR THE DAY SHOWED JAVIERS POORLY-DEFINED
 EYE DISAPPEARING UNDER A CDO THAT DEVELOPED ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE
 OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE
 NOW 77 KT...SO JAVIERS INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 75 KTS.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 310/9. THE SYNOPTIC REASONING REMAINS THE
 SAME. JAVIER REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A RIDGE OVER NORTHERN
 MEXICO. LARGE SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS RIDGE TO WEAKEN DURING THE
 NEXT 72 HR OR SO AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
 STATES...THEN THE RIDGE MAY RE-INTENSIFY AFTER 96 HR AS THE TROUGH
 LIFTS OUT AND A NEW TROUGH DIGS JUST OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE
 UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION WOULD ALLOW JAVIER TO TURN
 NORTHWARD WITH DECELERATION DURING THE NEXT 96 HR...FOLLOWED BY A
 NORTHWESTWARD TURN THEREAFTER. THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH
 THIS SCENARIO WITH SOME SPREAD IN BOTH SPEED AND DIRECTION...WITH
 THE GFS FORECAST NOW BEING A MAJOR OUTLIER IN THAT IT MOVES THE
 SYSTEM MUCH FARTHER TO THE WEST WHEN COMPARED TO THE CONCENSUS. THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GUNS...GUNA...AND CONU CONSENSUS
 MODELS. THE WHOLE MODEL SUITE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST
 WHICH LESSENS THE THREAT TO MAINLAND MEXICO. HOWEVER...THE 120 HOUR
 FORECAST POSITIONS FOR THE UKMET...GFDL AND THE OFFICIAL ARE ALL
 NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
 
 JAVIER IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...AND
 LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO REMAIN LIGHT FOR AT LEAST
 72 HR. THUS...THE SYSTEM SHOULD STEADILY STRENGTHEN DURING THAT
 TIME. SHIPS CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO REACH 100 KTS IN 36-48 HOURS
 AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO. 
 
 FORECASTER JARVINEN
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      13/0300Z 14.0N 104.2W    75 KT
  12HR VT     13/1200Z 14.7N 105.2W    85 KT
  24HR VT     14/0000Z 15.7N 106.1W    95 KT
  36HR VT     14/1200Z 16.6N 106.6W   100 KT
  48HR VT     15/0000Z 17.5N 107.1W   100 KT
  72HR VT     16/0000Z 19.0N 107.6W   100 KT
  96HR VT     17/0000Z 20.6N 108.6W   100 KT
 120HR VT     18/0000Z 22.0N 110.0W   100 KT
  
  
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