170 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 122041
 TCDEP3
 HURRICANE JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 2 PM PDT SUN SEP 12 2004
  
 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT JAVIER HAS FORMED AN
 INTERMITTENT POORLY-DEFINED EYE IN A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST...WITH
 AN OUTER BAND LOOSELY WRAPPED AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE. 
 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 65 KT...SO
 JAVIER IS UPGRADED TO A 65 KT HURRICANE.  THE CIRRUS OUTLOW IS
 CURRENTLY GOOD IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND POOR-FAIR
 ELSEWHERE.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 300/10.  JAVIER REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE
 OF A RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.  LARGE SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS
 RIDGE TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 72 HR OR SO AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS
 OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...THEN THE RIDGE MAY RE-INTENSIFY
 AFTER 96 HR AS THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT AND A NEW TROUGH DIGS JUST OFF
 THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.  THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION WOULD
 ALLOW JAVIER TO TURN NORTHWARD WITH DECELERATION DURING THE NEXT 96
 HR...FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWESTWARD TURN THEREAFTER.  THE DYNAMICAL
 GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO WITH SOME SPREAD IN BOTH SPEED
 AND DIRECTION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO IN
 AGREEMENT WITH THE GUNS...GUNA...AND CONU CONSENSUS MODELS...AND IS
 AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE
 GFDL AND NOGAPS BRING THE CENTER INLAND ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
 MEXICO BEFORE 96 HR...AND ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST
 TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER OVER OR VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST.
  
 JAVIER IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...AND
 LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO REMAIN LIGHT FOR AT LEAST
 72 HR.  THUS...THE SYSTEM SHOULD STEADILY STRENGTHEN DURING THAT
 TIME ASSUMING IT STAYS OFFSHORE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR
 THIS SMALL SYSTEM TO REACH 100 KT BY 48 HR IN A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
 THE WEAKER SHIPS AND THE STRONGER GFDL.  NEITHER MODEL STRENGTHENS
 THE SYSTEM AFTER 48-60 HR...ALTHOUGH THE REASON FOR THIS IS NOT
 READILY APPARENT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL FOLLOW SUIT FOR
 NOW...BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT JAVIER WILL GET STRONGER
 THAN FORECAST AFTER 48 HR.
  
 FORECASTER BEVEN
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      12/2100Z 13.4N 103.6W    65 KT
  12HR VT     13/0600Z 14.0N 104.7W    75 KT
  24HR VT     13/1800Z 14.9N 105.6W    85 KT
  36HR VT     14/0600Z 15.7N 106.2W    95 KT
  48HR VT     14/1800Z 16.7N 106.5W   100 KT
  72HR VT     15/1800Z 18.5N 106.5W   100 KT
  96HR VT     16/1800Z 21.0N 107.5W   100 KT
 120HR VT     17/1800Z 22.5N 109.0W   100 KT
  
  
 $$