826 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 120851
 TCDEP3
 TROPICAL STORM JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 2 AM PDT SUN SEP 12 2004
  
 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION IN THE BANDING
 FEATURE THAT IS WRAPPING AROUND FROM THE NORTH INTO THE CDO FEATURE
 OF JAVIER. THE CDO HAS VERY COLD CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES OF -80
 DEGREES C OR COLDER. DVORAK T NUMBERS ARE 3.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND
 SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 55 KT.
 
 THE SYSTEM NOW LOOKS LIKE IT IS TURNING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
 AND SLOWING DOWN AS THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INDICATING.  THE
 INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 285/8. JAVIER IS MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
 PERIPHERY OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
 MEXICO.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK NOW FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS OF THE
 GUIDANCE WHICH GRADUALLY CURVES THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND
 SLOWS IT DOWN AS IT PUSHES INTO THE RIDGE.
  
 SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 28-29C ALONG THE
 FORECAST TRACK OF JAVIER. IN ADDITION THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS THE
 EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN BY 24 HOURS INTO SINGLE
 DIGIT VALUES AND REMAIN THAT WAY OUT TO ABOUT 66 HOURS. THE SHIPS
 MODEL WAS FOLLOWED CLOSELY FOR THE INTENSITY FORECAST WHICH CALLS
 FOR JAVIER TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 12 HOURS AND MAXIMUM
 INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IN 72 HOURS JUST AFTER RECURVATURE IS
 COMPLETED.
 
 FORECASTER JARVINEN
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      12/0900Z 12.3N 102.0W    55 KT
  12HR VT     12/1800Z 12.7N 103.1W    65 KT
  24HR VT     13/0600Z 13.7N 104.4W    75 KT
  36HR VT     13/1800Z 14.7N 105.6W    80 KT
  48HR VT     14/0600Z 16.0N 106.2W    85 KT
  72HR VT     15/0600Z 17.7N 106.6W    90 KT
  96HR VT     16/0600Z 19.7N 107.0W    90 KT
 120HR VT     17/0600Z 21.1N 107.7W    90 KT
  
  
 $$